enDaily Analysis 08/03/2024
Latest Economic and Fundamental Insights
The dollar index settled at its lowest level in more than seven weeks below 103 on Friday and was on track to lose about 1% this week, weighed down by expectations that the Federal Reserve will focus on cutting interest rates this year.
- Gold held near record highs at around $2,160 an ounce on Friday and was on track to gain more than 3% this week as the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields retreated amid expectations that the Federal Reserve will focus on cutting interest rates this year.
- The dollar falls to a one-month low as U.S. Treasury yields fall on Powell’s comments.
- Investors are now looking to more U.S. economic indicators this week, headlined by Friday’s monthly jobs report, for further guidance.
- Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell completed his testimony before the U.S. Congress on Thursday and Friday with mixed results.
- Powell sees inflation falling and has made great progress on that front…
- Powell confirmed that it would be appropriate to cut interest rates this year, but did not specify which month that would be, instead pointing to labor and inflation data as the determining factors.
- Therefore, it is very important to follow the results of the jobs, unemployment and wages data to be released tomorrow, which will either crush the dollar further or be its lifeline.
- Oil gains rise on Middle East tensions, with Brent crude trading at $83.00 and WTI crude at $79.00.
- In the United States, data showed that U.S. crude stocks rose by 1.367 million barrels last week, well below expectations for an increase of 2.116 million barrels.
- Bitcoin is still struggling to stabilize above the $68,000 resistance level. BTC is now consolidating and could fall back towards the $63,500 support level.
Smart technical reports
How they work
A likely scenario is proposed for today, and the probability of this scenario being achieved, according to technical analysis, may be between 60% and 75%.
If the first scenario fails, the probability of the second scenario being achieved will be between 60% and 75% certain.
The first scenario fails when the price reaches the level of the alternative scenario condition, and the alternative scenario is immediately activated and the prediction from the first scenario is cancelled.
These reports are not considered a substitute for the trader’s decision, but rather they are a tool to assist the follower in making his own decisions, as a reference based on the origins of classical technical analysis.
GOLD
General trend: bullish
Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 2160.35
The first scenario: Buy gold at a break and hold above 2162.95, with a target price of 2168.01 and 2174.96. Alternative scenario: Sell gold at a break and hold below 2154.72, with a price target of 2148.27 and then 2140.92.
Comment: Trading above supports and averages suggests an upward trend
CRUDE OIL
Trend: bullish
Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: $78.96 per barrel
The first scenario: Buying oil at a break and holding steady by closing the candle at the highest level at $79.27, targeting a price of $79.74, then 80.30. Alternative scenario: Selling oil at a break of $78.59, targeting a price of $78.07, then 77.48.
Comment: Trading above supports and averages suggests an upward trend
EURUSD
General trend:- Bullish
Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 1.09364
The first scenario: Buying Eurodollars at a break of 1.09526, targeting a price of 1.09711, then 1.09935. Alternative scenario: Selling Eurodollars at a break of 1.09299, targeting a price of 1.09139, then 1.08926. Comment: Trading above supports and averages suggests an upward trend
GBPUSD
Trend: bullish
Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 1.28028
The first scenario: Buy the pound dollar at a break and hold at the highest level of 1.28215, targeting a price of 1.28501 then 1.28722. Alternative scenario: sell the pound dollar at a break and hold at a close below 1.27879, targeting a price of 1.27682 then 1.27458.
Comment: Trading above supports and averages suggests an upward trend
NAS100
Trend: bullish
Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 18534
The first scenario: Buying Nasdaq at a break and holding steady with a close above 18558, targeting the price of 18598 then 18644. Alternative scenario: Selling Nasdaq at a break and holding steady with a close below 18499, targeting a price of 18457 then 18414.
Comment: Trading above supports and averages suggests an upward trend
Economic Calendar
(Times are in GMT+3)
• Europe: GDP (Annual) (Q4) 13:00
• United States: Average Hourly Earnings (Monthly) (February) 16:30
• United States: Private Payrolls Report (February) 16:30
• United States: Unemployment Rate (February) 16:30
• Europe: GDP (Annual) (Q4) 13:00
Fundamental Analysis
The dollar index settled at its lowest level in more than seven weeks below 103 on Friday and was on track to lose about 1% this week, weighed down by expectations that the Federal Reserve will focus on cutting interest rates this year.
- In his testimony before the Senate, Fed Chair Powell said the central bank is not far from gaining enough confidence that inflation is nearing its 2% target to justify starting a easing cycle.
- These remarks came on the heels of an earlier statement that interest rates are likely to be cut this year if inflation continues to slow.
- Meanwhile, recent data showed that jobless claims rose more than expected last week, labor costs rose less than expected in the fourth quarter, and February layoffs were the highest since 2009.
- Investors are now looking to the upcoming February jobs report due on Friday for more insights into the labor market.
- The latest data also showed that U.S. initial weekly jobless claims came in slightly above expectations, while fourth-quarter labor costs were revised lower.
- Elsewhere, traders boosted bets on a June rate cut by the European Central Bank after the regulator lowered its inflation and GDP growth forecasts.
- West Texas Intermediate crude futures rose above $79 a barrel on Friday, recouping losses from the previous session as escalating tensions in the Middle East continued to stoke supply concerns, with a Houthi attack on a commercial vessel in the Red Sea this week killing one.
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