Daily Market Analysis

 

Latest Economic and Fundamental Insights

 

• The dollar index held steady above 104 on Thursday as investors avoided making big bets ahead of the key monthly jobs report, which could provide new insights into the state of the U.S. labor market.
• Gold prices held steady as investors awaited the U.S. jobs report for further signals from the Federal Reserve.
• Ten-year Treasury yields hovered near their lowest levels in three months.
• Oil rebounded from six-month lows, but concerns about demand remained as Brent crude traded at $74.00 and West Texas Intermediate at $69.87.
• Bitcoin prices held steady above $43,000.

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Smart technical reports

 

 

How they work

A likely scenario for the day is proposed, and the probability of this scenario being achieved, according to technical analysis, could be between 60% and 75%. If the first scenario fails, the probability of the second scenario being achieved will be between 60% and 75%.

The first scenario fails when the price reaches the alternative scenario condition level, the alternative scenario is then immediately activated, and the first scenario prediction gets cancelled.

These reports are not considered a substitute for the trader’s decision, but rather they are a tool to assist the follower in making their own decisions, as a reference based on classical technical analysis.

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GOLD

 

General trend: bullish

Time interval: 30 minutes

Current price: $2,028.60

First scenario: Buy gold on the break when steady by closing the candle above the levels of $2,031.27, targeting a price of $2,036.33 and then $2,043.27.
Alternative scenario: Sell gold on the break of $2,023.04, targeting a price of $2,016.59 and then $2,009.24.

Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an uptrend.

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CRUDE OIL

 

General trend: bearish

Time interval: 30 minutes

Current price: $69.85 per barrel

First scenario: Buy oil on the break when steady by closing the candle above the levels of $70.20, targeting a price of $70.67 and then $71.24.
Alternative scenario: Sell oil on the break of $69.52, targeting a price of $69.00 and then $68.42.

Comment: Trading below resistances and averages suggests a downtrend.

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EURUSD

 

General trend: bearish

Time interval: 30 minutes

Current price: $1.07654

First scenario: Sell EURUSD on the break of $1.07523, targeting a price of $1.07363 and then $1.07150.
Alternative scenario: Buy EURUSD on the break when steady by closing the candle above the levels of $1.07750, targeting a price of $1.07935 and then $1.08159.

Comment: Trading below resistances and averages suggests a downtrend.

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GBPUSD

 

General trend: bearish

Time interval: 30 minutes

Current price: $1.25585

First scenario: Sell GBPUSD on the break of $1.25379, targeting a price of $1.25182 and then $1.24958.
Alternative scenario: Buy GBPUSD on the break when steady by closing the candle above the levels of $1.15715, targeting a price of $1.26001 and then $1.26223.

Comment: Trading below resistances and averages suggests a downtrend.

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NAS100

 

General trend: bullish

Time interval: 30 minutes

Current price: $15,803

First scenario: Sell Nasdaq on the break of $15,777, targeting a price of $15,735 and then $15,690.
Alternative scenario: Buy Nasdaq on the break when steady by closing the candle above the levels of $15,836, targeting a price of $15,876 and then $15,922.

Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an uptrend.

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Economic Calendar

(Times are in GMT+3)

 

• Europe: Gross Domestic Product (annually) at 13:00.
• United States: Initial Jobless Claims Index at 16:30.

 

Fundamental Analysis

 

• The dollar index held steady above 104 on Thursday as investors avoided making big bets ahead of the key monthly jobs report, which could provide new insights into the state of the U.S. labor market.
• The non-farm payrolls report on Friday is expected to show that employment is likely to rise by 170,000 in November, with the unemployment rate remaining at its highest level in 22 months at 3.9% and wage growth slowing to 4%, its lowest level since June 2021.
• Meanwhile, data released on Wednesday showed signs of a slowdown in the U.S. labor market, as the ADP report pointed to fewer-than-expected job additions in November and labor costs below expectations in the third quarter.
• However, the dollar remained near its strongest levels in nearly three weeks, as traders increased their bets on interest rate cuts from other central banks.
• Markets see a roughly 85% chance of the European Central Bank cutting interest rates in March 2024.
• Gold price held steady on Thursday as investors refrained from making big bets ahead of the important U.S. jobs data later this week, which could provide further clues on the path of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate policy.
• Oil prices recouped some of their losses on Thursday after falling to their lowest levels in six months in the previous session, but investors remained concerned about slowing demand and economic slowdowns in the United States and China.