enDaily Analysis 07/03/2024
Latest Economic and Fundamental Insights
The dollar index held onto its recent losses at around 103.2 on Thursday, hovering near its lowest levels in a month as Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said it would likely be appropriate to start rolling back accommodative policy “at some point this year.”
- Gold rose above $2,150 an ounce on Thursday, hitting its highest level ever as the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields weakened amid expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve will start cutting interest rates soon amid growing economic gloom.
- The dollar falls to a one-month low as U.S. Treasury yields fall on Powell’s comments.
- Investors are now looking to more U.S. economic indicators this week, headlined by Friday’s monthly jobs report, for further guidance.
- Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell will complete his testimony before the U.S. Congress today, Thursday.
- Oil rises after lower-than-expected U.S. inventory build, with Brent crude trading at $82.00 and WTI crude at $78.00.
- Data showed that U.S. crude stocks rose by 1.367 million barrels last week, well below expectations for an increase of 2.116 million barrels.
- Bitcoin is struggling to stabilize above the $68,000 resistance level. BTC is now consolidating and could fall towards the $63,400 support zone.
Smart technical reports
How they work
A likely scenario is proposed for today, and the probability of this scenario being achieved, according to technical analysis, may be between 60% and 75%.
If the first scenario fails, the probability of the second scenario being achieved will be between 60% and 75% certain.
The first scenario fails when the price reaches the level of the alternative scenario condition, and the alternative scenario is immediately activated and the prediction from the first scenario is cancelled.
These reports are not considered a substitute for the trader’s decision, but rather they are a tool to assist the follower in making his own decisions, as a reference based on the origins of classical technical analysis.
GOLD
General trend: bullish
Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 2158.58
The first scenario: Buy gold at a break and hold above 2162.08, with a target price of 2167.14 and 2174.08. Alternative scenario: Sell gold at a break and hold below 2153.85, with a price target of 2147.40 and then 2140.05.
Comment: Trading above supports and averages suggests an upward trend
CRUDE OIL
Trend: bullish
Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: $78.53 per barrel
The first scenario: Buying oil at a break and holding steady by closing the candle at the highest level at $78.94, targeting a price of $79.41, then 79.98. Alternative scenario: Selling oil at a break of $78.26, targeting a price of $77.74, then 77.16.
Comment: Trading above supports and averages suggests an upward trend
EURUSD
General trend:- Bullish
Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 1.09052
The first scenario: Buying Eurodollars at a break of 1.09087, targeting a price of 1.09271, then 1.09496. Alternative scenario: Selling Eurodollars at a break of 1.08859, targeting a price of 1.08699, then 1.08486.
Comment: Trading above supports and averages suggests an upward trend
GBPUSD
Trend: bullish
Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 1.27399
The first scenario: Buy the pound dollar at a break and hold at the highest level of 1.27510, targeting a price of 1.27796 then 1.28017. Alternative scenario: sell the pound dollar at a break and hold at a close below 1.27174, targeting a price of 1.26976 then 1.26752.
Comment: Trading above supports and averages suggests an upward trend
NAS100
Trend: down
Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 17976
The first scenario: sell the Nasdaq at a break and hold with a close below 17938, targeting a price of 17896 then 17852. Alternative scenario: buy the Nasdaq at a break and hold with a close above 17997, targeting a price of 18036 then 18082
Comment: Trading below resistances and averages suggests a decline
Economic Calendar
(Times are in GMT+3)
• Europe: European Central Bank Interest Rate Decision (March) 16:15
• United States: Initial Jobless Claims 16:30
• European Central Bank Press Conference 16:45
• United States: Federal Reserve Chair Powell Testifies 18:00
• Europe: European Central Bank Interest Rate Decision (March) 16:15
Fundamental Analysis
The dollar index held onto its recent losses at around 103.2 on Thursday, hovering near its lowest levels in a month as Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said it would likely be appropriate to start rolling back accommodative policy “at some point this year.”
• ADP data also showed that U.S. private sector employment rose less than expected in February, while JOLTS reports showed job openings came in slightly below expectations.
• Investors are now looking ahead to Powell’s appearance before the U.S. Senate on Thursday, as well as the latest data on jobless claims, the trade balance, and consumer credit.
• Markets are also bracing for the European Central Bank’s policy decision on Thursday.
• The dollar was down across the board, with the selling most pronounced against the Japanese yen.
Gold rose above $2,150 an ounce on Thursday, hitting its highest level ever as the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields weakened amid expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve will start cutting interest rates soon amid growing economic gloom.
• Investors are now looking ahead to Powell’s appearance before the U.S. Senate on Thursday, as well as the latest data on jobless claims, the trade balance, and consumer credit.
West Texas Intermediate crude futures steadied above $79 a barrel on Thursday after rising more than 1% in the previous session, as the latest Energy Information Administration report showed a smaller-than-expected increase in U.S. crude stocks.
• Additionally, Saudi Arabia unexpectedly raised its key crude prices for buyers in Asia.
• The move comes after OPEC+ agreed on Sunday to extend production cuts until the end of June to stabilize the market.
Risk Disclaimer
Any information/articles/materials/content provided by WRC1 or displayed on its website is intended to be used solely for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a consultation on how the client should trade.
Although WRC1 has taken care to ensure that the content of such information is accurate, - it cannot be held responsible for any omission/error/miscalculation and cannot guarantee the accuracy of any material or any information contained herein.
Therefore, any reliance you place on such material is strictly at your own risk. Please note that the responsibility for using or relying on such material rests with the client and WRC1 accepts no liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation, any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from the use of or reliance on such information.
Risk Warning: FX/CFDs are complex instruments and carry a high risk of losing money quickly due to leverage. You should consider whether you understand how FX/CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
You should make sure that, depending on your country of residence, you are allowed to trade with WRC1 products. Please ensure that you are familiar with the company’s risk disclosure.
