Daily Market Analysis

 

Latest Economic and Fundamental Insights

 

• The dollar index fell towards 104 on Wednesday after retreating from a near three-month high in the previous session as investors continued to assess Federal Reserve monetary policy expectations.

• Gold holds steady ahead of Fed speakers on rates

• Spot gold trades in a narrow $2 range

• Five more Fed speakers due to speak this week

• Oil prices rise, with Brent trading at $78.00 and WTI at $73.00 on continued supply risk concerns

• Asian stocks rise, with Beijing keeping markets on hold

• Chinese stocks rise amid volatile trading as investors look to Beijing for support

• Bonds rally, with more Fed speakers on the agenda

• Swiss bank UBS reports second consecutive quarterly loss!

• Bitcoin price holds steady near $43,000 as new ETFs surpass $7.5 billion in BTC holdings

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Smart technical reports

 

 

How they work

A likely scenario is proposed for today, and the probability of this scenario being achieved, according to technical analysis, may be between 60% and 75%.

If the first scenario fails, the probability of the second scenario being achieved will be between 60% and 75% certain.

The first scenario fails when the price reaches the level of the alternative scenario condition, and the alternative scenario is immediately activated and the prediction from the first scenario is cancelled.

These reports are not considered a substitute for the trader’s decision, but rather they are a tool to assist the follower in making his own decisions, as a reference based on the origins of classical technical analysis.

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GOLD

 

General trend: bearish

Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 2033.46

The first scenario: selling gold at a fraction and holding below 2031.56, with a target price of 2025.11 and 2017.76. Alternative scenario: buying gold at a fraction and holding above 2039.79, with a price targeting of 2044.85 and then 2051.79.

Comment: Trading below resistances and averages suggests a decline

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CRUDE OIL

 

Trend: bearish

Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 73.43

Dollars per barrel. The first scenario: selling oil at a break and holding steady by closing the candle below the $73.24 level, targeting a price of $72.72, then 72.14. Alternative scenario: buying oil at a break of $73.92, targeting a price of $74.39, then 74.95.

Comment: Trading below resistances and averages suggests a decline

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EURUSD

 

General trend: – Bearish

Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 1.07633

The first scenario: sell the euro/dollar at a break of 1.07488, targeting a price of 1.07328, then 1.07115. Alternative scenario: buy the euro/dollar at a break of 1.07715, targeting a price of 1.07900, then 1.08124.

Comment: Trading below resistances and averages suggests a decline

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GBPUSD

 

Trend: down

Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 1.26046

The first scenario: Selling the pound dollar at a fraction and holding below the level of 1.25871, targeting the price of 1.25674, then 1.25450. Alternative scenario: Buying the pound dollar at a break, and holding steady at a close above 1.26207, targeting the price of 1.26493, then 1.26714.

Comment: Trading below resistances and averages leads to a decline

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NAS100

 

Trend: bullish

Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 17663

The first scenario: Buying Nasdaq at a break and holding steady with a close above 17696, targeting a price of 17736 then 17782. Alternative scenario: Selling Nasdaq at a break and holding steady with a close below 17637, targeting a price of 17595 then 17552.

Comment: Trading above supports and averages suggests an upward trend.

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Economic Calendar

 

(Times are in GMT+3)

• U.S. Crude Oil Inventories 18:30

 

Fundamental Analysis

 

 

• The dollar index fell towards 104 on Wednesday after retreating from a near three-month high in the previous session as investors continued to assess Federal Reserve monetary policy expectations.

• U.S. Treasury yields also pulled back from recent highs amid strong demand at a new three-year note auction, weighing on the dollar.

• However, the currency remained supported by strong U.S. economic data and hawkish rhetoric from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell.

• Data on Tuesday showed that U.S. household debt hit a new record of $17.5 trillion in the fourth quarter of 2023 amid increased borrowing across all categories.

• Powell, meanwhile, reiterated in an interview over the weekend that a rate cut in March is unlikely, echoing comments made last week after the Federal Open Market Committee decision.

• He added that the central bank is likely to move much slower on rate cuts than the market anticipates.

• Gold prices were trading in a narrow range on Wednesday, ahead of speeches from Fed officials this week that could provide more clues on when the U.S. central bank might start to ease monetary policy.

• Oil prices rose in early Asian trading on Wednesday morning, extending gains after settling higher for a second straight session. Middle East tensions remain in focus, with investors continuing to assess supply disruption risks.