Daily Market Analysis

 

Latest Economic and Fundamental Insights

 

• The U.S. dollar hovered near its highest levels in two weeks on Wednesday, as investors continued to assess interest rate expectations in light of the latest batch of economic reports.
• Gold stabilized after a volatile session. Gold rose as the dollar declined and investors awaited U.S. jobs data.
• Oil remained under pressure, trading at $77.00 for Brent crude and $72.23 for West Texas Intermediate.
• Bitcoin rose by more than 15% in just a few days, and the $45,000 level is now in sight.

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Smart technical reports

 

 

How they work

A likely scenario for the day is proposed, and the probability of this scenario being achieved, according to technical analysis, could be between 60% and 75%. If the first scenario fails, the probability of the second scenario being achieved will be between 60% and 75%.

The first scenario fails when the price reaches the alternative scenario condition level, the alternative scenario is then immediately activated, and the first scenario prediction gets cancelled.

These reports are not considered a substitute for the trader’s decision, but rather they are a tool to assist the follower in making their own decisions, as a reference based on classical technical analysis.

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GOLD

 

General trend: bullish

Time interval: 30 minutes

Current price: $2,021.78

First scenario: Buy gold on the break when steady by closing the candle above the levels of $2,026.04, targeting a price of $2,031.10 and then $2,038.05.
Alternative scenario: Sell gold on the break of $2,017.81, targeting a price of $2,011.36 and then $2,004.01.

Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an uptrend.

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CRUDE OIL

 

General trend: bearish

Time interval: 30 minutes

Current price: $72.40 per barrel

First scenario: Buy oil on the break when steady by closing the candle above the levels of $72.81, targeting a price of $73.29 and then $73.85.
Alternative scenario: Sell oil on the break of $72.13, targeting a price of $71.61 and then $71.03.

Comment: Trading below resistances and averages suggests a downtrend.

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EURUSD

 

General trend: bullish

Time interval: 30 minutes

Current price: $1.07947

First scenario: Sell EURUSD on the break of $1.07822, targeting a price of $1.07662 and then $1.07449.
Alternative scenario: Buy EURUSD on the break when steady by closing the candle above the levels of $1.08049, targeting a price of $1.08234 and then $1.08458.

Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an uptrend.

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GBPUSD

 

General trend: bearish

Time interval: 30 minutes

Current price: $1.26061

First scenario: Sell GBPUSD on the break of $1.25909, targeting a price of $1.25712 and then $1.25488.
Alternative scenario: Buy GBPUSD on the break when steady by closing the candle above the levels of $1.26245, targeting a price of $1.26531 and then $1.26752.

Comment: Trading below resistances and averages suggests a downtrend.

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NAS100

 

General trend: bullish

Time interval: 30 minutes

Current price: $15,976

First scenario: Sell Nasdaq on the break of $15,945, targeting a price of $15,903 and then $15,858.
Alternative scenario: Buy Nasdaq on the break when steady by closing the candle above the levels of $16,004, targeting a price of $16,043 and then $16,089.

Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an uptrend.

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Economic Calendar

(Times are in GMT+3)

 

• Canada: Bank of Canada’s decision on interest rates at 18:00
• United States: ADP Non-Farm Private Employment Change (November) at 16:15
• United States: Institute for Supply Management’s (ISM) Non-Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (November) at 18:00
• United States: U.S. Crude Oil Inventories at 18:30

 

Fundamental Analysis

 

• The dollar index held steady around 103.9 on Wednesday, hovering near its highest levels in two weeks as investors continued to assess interest rate expectations in light of the latest batch of economic reports.
• October saw a sharp decline in job openings, reaching its lowest level in nearly two and a half years, suggesting a slowdown in the labor market.
• Meanwhile, the ISM survey reported that growth in the service sector accelerated to its highest level in three months in November, beating expectations.
• Investors now look to the monthly jobs report on Friday, which is expected to show that non-farm payrolls are likely to rise by 170,000 in November, while the unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at its highest level in 22 months at 3.9% and wage growth is expected to slow to 4%, its lowest level since June 2021.
• Last week, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said that current monetary settings are “in the restrictive zone,” but he warned that it is “premature” to expect policy easing.
• Gold prices rose on Wednesday as the dollar declined and weaker-than-expected U.S. jobs data boosted expectations for the end of the Federal Reserve’s tightening cycle.
• The West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures settled below $73 a barrel on Wednesday, hovering near its lowest levels in five months, as rising U.S. crude exports raised concerns about rising global supply.
• Data showed that U.S. crude oil exports are nearing a record level of 6 million barrels per day, with a steady increase in flows to Europe and Asia.
• Oil prices have also retreated since OPEC+ announced production cuts last week, amid doubts about whether the latest decision would have a significant impact on the market.
• Meanwhile, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said that OPEC+ is ready to deepen production cuts in the first quarter of 2024 to eliminate “speculation and volatility” if current production cuts are not enough.