enDaily Analysis 06/03/2024
Latest Economic and Fundamental Insights
The dollar index steadied around 103.8 on Wednesday after facing renewed pressure earlier in the week, as investors look ahead to Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s testimony before the U.S. Congress on Wednesday and Thursday.
• Gold retreated towards $2,120 an ounce on Wednesday as investors remained on the sidelines ahead of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s testimony before the U.S. Congress on Wednesday and Thursday, where he could offer clues on the timing and size of interest rate cuts this year.
• That gold rally was driven by weaker-than-expected U.S. data and falling real interest rates.
• Investors are now looking to more U.S. economic indicators this week, headlined by Friday’s monthly jobs report, for further guidance.
• Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell will also testify before the U.S. Congress today and Thursday.
Oil falls on demand concerns, with Brent crude trading at $82.00 and WTI crude at $78.00.
• Oil falls on doubts about China’s growth target.
• Bitcoin price rallied to a new all-time high above $69,000 before crashing. BTC is now consolidating near $63,000 and could fall towards the $60,000 support level.
Smart technical reports
How they work
A likely scenario is proposed for today, and the probability of this scenario being achieved, according to technical analysis, may be between 60% and 75%.
If the first scenario fails, the probability of the second scenario being achieved will be between 60% and 75% certain.
The first scenario fails when the price reaches the level of the alternative scenario condition, and the alternative scenario is immediately activated and the prediction from the first scenario is cancelled.
These reports are not considered a substitute for the trader’s decision, but rather they are a tool to assist the follower in making his own decisions, as a reference based on the origins of classical technical analysis.
GOLD
General trend: bullish
Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 2130.86
The first scenario: Buy gold at a break and hold above 2131.71, with a target price of 2136.70 and 2143.65. Alternative scenario: Sell gold at a break and hold below 2123.41, with a price target of 2117.96 and then 2109.61. Comment: Trading above supports and averages suggests an upward trend
CRUDE OIL
Trend: bullish
Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: $78.03 per barrel
The first scenario: Buying oil at a break and holding steady by closing the candle at the highest level at $78.18, targeting a price of $78.65, then 79.22. Alternative scenario: Selling oil at a break of $77.50, targeting a price of $76.98, then 76.40.
Comment: Trading above supports and averages suggests an upward trend
EURUSD
General trend:- Bullish
Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 1.08647
The first scenario: Buying Eurodollars at a break of 1.08693, targeting a price of 1.08878, then 1.09102. Alternative scenario: Selling Eurodollars at a break of 1.08466, targeting a price of 1.08306, then 1.08093.
Comment: Trading above supports and averages suggests an upward trend
GBPUSD
Trend: bullish
Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 1.27113
The first scenario: Buy the pound dollar at a break and hold at the highest level of 1.27223, targeting a price of 1.27509 then 1.27730. Alternative scenario: sell the pound dollar at a break and hold at a close below 1.26887, targeting a price of 1.26689 then 1.26465. Comment: Trading above supports and averages suggests an upward trend
NAS100
Trend: down
Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 17977
The first scenario: sell the Nasdaq at a break and hold with a close below 17952, targeting the price of 17910 then 17866. Alternative scenario: buy the Nasdaq at a break and hold with a close above 18011, targeting the price of 18050 then 18096
Comment: Trading below resistances and averages suggests a decline
Economic Calendar
(Times are in GMT+3)
- United States: ADP Nonfarm Private Employment Change (February) 16:15
- Canada: Bank of Canada Interest Rate Decision 17:45
- United States: Federal Reserve Chair Powell Testifies 18:00
- United States: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) (January) 18:00
- United States: U.S. Crude Oil Inventories 18:30
- United States: ADP Nonfarm Private Employment Change (February) 16:15
Fundamental Analysis
• The dollar index steadied around 103.8 on Wednesday after facing renewed pressure earlier in the week, as investors look ahead to Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s testimony before the U.S. Congress on Wednesday and Thursday, where he could offer clues on the timing and size of interest rate cuts this year.
• Investors are also awaiting the monthly jobs report on Friday for further guidance.
• The dollar fell on Tuesday after the latest U.S. factory orders and services data pointed to signs of slowing economic activity in the United States, bolstering the case for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates this year.
• Elsewhere, the European Central Bank’s monetary policy decision on Thursday is also expected to have an impact on currency markets.
• Investors are also awaiting the U.S. monthly jobs report on Friday for further guidance.
• Gold steadied at near record highs on Tuesday after the latest U.S. factory orders and services data pointed to signs of slowing economic activity in the United States, bolstering the case for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates this year.
• Elsewhere, the European Central Bank’s monetary policy decision on Thursday is also widely expected to be watched for clues on the path of interest rates globally.
• West Texas Intermediate crude futures steadied at $78 a barrel on Wednesday after losing more than 2% over the past two sessions, as weak demand expectations overshadowed extended OPEC+ supply cuts.
• The latest U.S. factory orders and services data pointed to signs of slowing economic activity in the United States, fanning concerns about a demand slowdown from the world’s biggest oil consumer.
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