Daily Market Analysis

 

Latest Economic and Fundamental Insights

 

• The dollar index settled around 104.4 on Tuesday, hovering near its highest levels in nearly three months as strong U.S. economic data and hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve dampened expectations of an interest rate cut.
• Gold prices are at their lowest level in nearly two weeks as Fed rate cut bets ease
• The Central Bank of Australia issued a decision to set the interest rate at 4.35%.
• Investors are awaiting statements from a group of Federal Reserve Bank spokesmen this week
• Oil rises as investors think about the situation in the Middle East, with Brent crude trading at $78.00 and West Texas Intermediate crude at $72.00.
• Amazon stock jumps 8% after a bumper quarter from merchants, and rosy expectations
• Huawei regains first place in the smartphone market in China
• Asian stocks rise as China recovers and the dollar stabilizes
• Bitcoin price is consolidating above the $42,250 support area. BTC could start a good increase if it crosses the $43,000 and $43,400 resistance levels.

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Smart technical reports

 

 

How they work

A likely scenario is proposed for today, and the probability of this scenario being achieved, according to technical analysis, may be between 60% and 75%.

If the first scenario fails, the probability of the second scenario being achieved will be between 60% and 75% certain.

The first scenario fails when the price reaches the level of the alternative scenario condition, and the alternative scenario is immediately activated and the prediction from the first scenario is cancelled.

These reports are not considered a substitute for the trader’s decision, but rather they are a tool to assist the follower in making his own decisions, as a reference based on the origins of classical technical analysis.

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GOLD

 

General trend: Bearish break

 Time: half an hour (30 minutes)

 Current price: 2026.65

 The first scenario: Selling gold at a fraction and holding below 2023.24, with a target price of 2016.80 and 2009.44. Alternative scenario: Buying gold at a break and holding above 2031.48, with a price targeting of 2036.54 and then 2043.48.

Comment: Trading below resistances and averages suggests a decline

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CRUDE OIL

 

Trend: bearish

Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: $72.86 per barrel

The first scenario: selling oil at a break and holding steady by closing the candle below the $72.51 level, targeting a price of $71.99, then 71.40. Alternative scenario: buying oil at a break of the $73.19 level, targeting a price of $73.66, then 74.22.

Comment: Trading below resistances and averages suggests a decline

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EURUSD

 

General trend: – Bearish

Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 1.07508

The first scenario: sell the euro/dollar at a break of 1.07386, targeting a price of 1.07386, then 1.07013. Alternative scenario: buy the euro/dollar at a break of 1.07613, targeting a price of 1.07798, then 1.08022.

Comment: Trading below resistances and averages suggests a decline

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GBPUSD

 

Trend: down

Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 1.25517

The first scenario: selling the pound dollar at a break and holding below the level of 1.25320, targeting a price of 1.25123 then 1.24899. Alternative scenario: buying the pound dollar at a breaking point and holding steady at a close above 1.25656, targeting a price of 1.25942 then 1.26163.

Comment: Trading below resistances and averages leads to a decline

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NAS100

 

Trend: bullish

Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 17731

The first scenario: Buying Nasdaq at a break and holding steady with a close above 17759, targeting a price of 17798 then 17844. Alternative scenario: Selling Nasdaq at a break and holding steady with a close below 17699, targeting a price of 17658 then 17614.

Comment: Trading above supports and averages suggests an upward trend.

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Economic Calendar

 

(Times are in GMT+3)

• From New Zealand – National Day

• Speech by the Governor of the Central Bank of Canada, 21:00

 

Fundamental Analysis

 

 

• The dollar index steadied around 104.4 on Tuesday, hovering near its highest levels in nearly three months as strong U.S. economic data and hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve dampened expectations of interest rate cuts.

• Data on Monday showed that U.S. services sector growth accelerated to a four-month high of 53.4 in January, beating expectations of 52.

• Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell also affirmed in an interview with CBS that aired over the weekend that a rate cut in March is unlikely, echoing comments made last week after the Federal Open Market Committee’s decision.

• He added that the central bank is likely to move much slower on rate cuts than the market anticipates.

• Markets now price in a 15% chance of a Federal rate cut in March and expect 115 basis points of total cuts this year, down from around 150 basis points in early January.

• Gold prices held near a two-week low on Tuesday, pressured by a stronger dollar and higher Treasury yields, as traders lowered their expectations for aggressive rate cuts by the U.S. Federal Reserve this year.

• U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures rose to around $73 a barrel on Tuesday, extending gains from the previous session amid concerns about rising tensions in the Middle East that could disrupt oil supplies from the region.