Daily Market Analysis

 

Latest Economic and Fundamental Insights

 

• The US dollar falls ahead of key job data release. The US dollar slipped to around 106.5 on Thursday, extending its losses from the previous session, primarily due to declining Treasury yields. Weaker-than-expected US job data have reduced the likelihood of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates again this year.
• The ADP report revealed that private sector job growth in September was only 89,000, the lowest since January 2021, and significantly lower than the expected 153,000.
• Meanwhile, all precious metals are on track for their second consecutive weekly losses.
• Palladium is hovering near its lowest level in five years and is having its worst week since June.
• Oil is heading towards its largest weekly decline since March, despite a slight increase on Friday. This drop follows a bond market sell-off in the United States, raising concerns about a global economic slowdown and reduced fuel demand.
• Growing bond market concerns in the US, related to government spending and budget deficit inflation, have contributed to sharp sell-offs, pushing Treasury bond prices to their lowest levels in 17 years.

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Smart technical reports

 

 

How they work

A likely scenario for the day is proposed, and the probability of this scenario being achieved, according to technical analysis, could be between 60% and 75%. If the first scenario fails, the probability of the second scenario being achieved will be between 60% and 75%.

The first scenario fails when the price reaches the alternative scenario condition level, the alternative scenario is then immediately activated, and the first scenario prediction gets cancelled.

These reports are not considered a substitute for the trader’s decision, but rather they are a tool to assist the follower in making their own decisions, as a reference based on classical technical analysis.

 

 

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GOLD

 

 

General trend: bearish

Time interval: 30 minutes

Current price: $1,821.47
First scenario: Buy gold on the break when stable by closing the candle above $1,825.70, targeting a price of $1,830.08 and then $1,834.58.

Alternative scenario: Sell gold on the break of $1,819.83, targeting a price of $1,814.56 and then $1,809.56.

Comment: Trading below resistances and averages suggests a downtrend.

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CRUDE OIL

 

 

General trend: bearish

Time interval: 30 minutes

Current price: $81.25 per barrel

First scenario: Buy oil on the break when steady by closing the candle above the levels of $81.78, targeting a price of $82.33 and then $82.83.

Alternative scenario: Sell oil on the break of $81.16, targeting a price of $80.58 and then $80.06.

Comment: Trading below resistances and averages suggests a downtrend.

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EURUSD

 

 

 

General trend: bearish

Time interval: 30 minutes

Current price: $1.05400
First scenario: Sell EURUSD on the break of $1.05284, targeting a price of $1.05124 and then $1.04951.

Alternative scenario: Buy EURUSD on the break when stable by closing the candle above $1.05514, targeting a price of $1.05701 and then $1.05910.

Comment: Trading below resistances and averages suggests a downtrend.

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GBPUSD

 

 

General trend: bearish

Time interval: 30 minutes

Current price: $1.21736
First scenario: Sell GBPUSD on the break when staying below 1.21643, targeting a price of $1.21445 and then $1.21221.

Alternative scenario: Buy GBPUSD on the break when stable by closing the candle above the levels of $1.21980, targeting a price of $1.22265 and then $1.22486.

Comment: Trading below resistances and averages suggests a downtrend.

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NAS100

 

 

General trend: bearish

Time interval: 30 minutes

Current price: $14,843
First scenario: Sell Nasdaq on the break when staying below $14,816, targeting a price of $14,762 and then $14,690.

Alternative scenario: Buy Nasdaq on the break when stable by closing the candle above the levels of $14,897, targeting a price of $14,958 and then $15,021.

Comment: Trading below resistances and averages suggests a downtrend.

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Economic Calendar

(Times are in GMT+3)

 

• Canada: Unemployment Rate Index at 15:30 UTC
• Canada: Employment Change Index at 15:30 UTC
• US: Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) Employment Index at 15:30 UTC
• US: Unemployment Rate Index at 15:30 UTC
• US: Hourly Earnings Index

 

Fundamental Analysis

 

• The US dollar decreased to around 106.4 on Friday as investors braced for the release of the US monthly non-farm payrolls report, which could influence interest rate expectations.
• The non-farm payrolls report, scheduled for later today, is expected to show that the economy added fewer jobs in September compared to August. A weaker-than-expected reading is likely to result in a lower dollar and bond yields.
• Simultaneously, the latest ISM Services PMI, factory orders, and initial jobless claims data suggest a resilient economy.
• Gold rebounded from its seven-month lows on Friday, as the US dollar and bond yields retreated after reaching new highs earlier this week, ahead of the US non-farm payrolls data release.
• Oil prices are heading towards their largest weekly decline since March, despite a rise on Friday. This follows a bond market sell-off in the United States, which has raised concerns about a global economic slowdown and a sharp drop in fuel demand.
• Growing concerns among bond market investors about US government spending and budget deficit inflation, in the world’s largest oil-consuming country, have triggered sharp sell-offs, pushing Treasury bond prices to their lowest levels in 17 years.