enDaily Analysis 05/03/2024
Latest Economic and Fundamental Insights
• The dollar index fell below 104 on Tuesday, holding on to its recent losses as investors look to more U.S. economic data and Federal Reserve commentary this week for better guidance on interest rate expectations.
• Gold prices steadied near a three-month high on Tuesday, supported by weak U.S. manufacturing and construction spending data.
• Gold steadied around $2,080 an ounce on Monday after rising nearly 2% in the previous session, supported by a weaker dollar and U.S. Treasury yields amid soft U.S. economic data.
• That gold rally was driven by weaker-than-expected U.S. data and falling real interest rates.
• Investors are now looking to more U.S. economic indicators this week, headlined by Friday’s monthly jobs report, for further guidance.
• Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell will also testify before the U.S. Congress on Wednesday and Thursday.
• Oil prices are mixed, with traders weighing developments from China’s National People’s Congress meeting, with Brent crude trading at $82.00 and WTI crude at $77.00.
• China earlier announced an economic growth target of around 5% for 2024, unchanged from the previous year.
• Weak global oil demand growth is likely to be the main challenge.
• On Monday, an influx of capital took Bitcoin tantalizingly close to record highs, lifting it to its highest in two years and above $68,000. At its peak, the price was $68,800.
Smart technical reports
How they work
A likely scenario is proposed for today, and the probability of this scenario being achieved, according to technical analysis, may be between 60% and 75%.
If the first scenario fails, the probability of the second scenario being achieved will be between 60% and 75% certain.
The first scenario fails when the price reaches the level of the alternative scenario condition, and the alternative scenario is immediately activated and the prediction from the first scenario is cancelled.
These reports are not considered a substitute for the trader’s decision, but rather they are a tool to assist the follower in making his own decisions, as a reference based on the origins of classical technical analysis.
GOLD
General trend: bullish
Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 2115.68
The first scenario: Buy gold at a break and hold above 2120.64, with a target price of 2125.70 and 2132.65. Alternative scenario: Sell gold at a break and hold below 2112.41, with a price target of 2105.96 and then 2098.61.
Comment: Trading above supports and averages suggests an upward trend
CRUDE OIL
Trend: bullish
Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: $77.93 per barrel
The first scenario: Buying oil at a break and holding steady by closing the candle at the highest level at $78.39, targeting a price of $78.86, then 79.43. Alternative scenario: Selling oil at a break of $77.72, targeting a price of $77.19, then 76.61.
Comment: Trading above supports and averages suggests an upward trend
EURUSD
General trend:- Bullish
Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 1.08464
The first scenario: Buying Eurodollars at a break of 1.08565, targeting a price of 1.08750, then 1.08975. Alternative scenario: Selling Eurodollars at a break of 1.08338, targeting a price of 1.08178, then 1.07965.
Comment: Trading above supports and averages suggests an upward trend
GBPUSD
Trend: bullish
Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 1.26783
The first scenario: Buy the pound dollar at a break and hold at the highest level of 1.26969, targeting the price of 1.27255 then 1.27476. Alternative scenario: sell the pound dollar at a break and hold at a close below 1.26633, targeting the price of 1.26435 then 1.26211.
Comment: Trading above supports and averages suggests an upward trend
NAS100
Trend: bullish
Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 18177
The first scenario: Buying the Nasdaq at a break and holding steady with a close above 18212, targeting the price of 18251 then 18297. The alternative scenario: selling the Nasdaq at a break and holding steady with a close below 18153, targeting the price of 18111 then 18067.
Comment: Trading above supports and averages suggests an upward trend
Economic Calendar
(Times are in GMT+3)
• United States: Services PMI (February) 17:45
• United States: ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (February) 18:00
Fundamental Analysis
The dollar index fell below 104 on Tuesday, holding on to its recent losses as investors look to more U.S. economic data and Federal Reserve commentary this week for better guidance on interest rate expectations.
• U.S. services activity and factory orders figures are due later on Tuesday, while the closely watched monthly jobs report will be released on Friday.
• Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell will also testify before the U.S. Congress on Wednesday and Thursday.
• Last week, ISM data showed the U.S. manufacturing sector contracted for the 16th straight month in February, at a faster-than-expected pace, the longest stretch since 2001.
• Meanwhile, the final reading of the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment survey showed weaker-than-expected February sentiment, with both expectations and current conditions deteriorating.
• Gold steadied above $2,110 an ounce on Tuesday, extending recent gains after settling at a near six-month high in the previous session.
• The moves came as the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields fell on the back of weak U.S. economic data, as well as on strong expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve will shift to cutting interest rates this year.
• Analysts also noted that the precious metal is acting as a hedge against rising recession risks in developed economies and increasing uncertainty surrounding the U.S. elections this year.
OPEC and its allies agreed to extend voluntary production cuts until the end of June.
• The decline came after OPEC and its allies agreed to extend voluntary production cuts until the end of June.
• Saudi Arabia, the de facto leader of OPEC, said it will extend its voluntary output cut by 1 million barrels per day.
• Russia also pledged to cut its output and exports by 471,000 barrels per day.
• In addition, Iraq and the UAE agreed to continue to cut production by 220,000 barrels per day and 163,000 barrels per day, respectively, until the end of June.
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