enDaily Analysis 04/10/2024
Latest Economic and Fundamental Insights
The dollar index held steady around 101.9 on Friday after rising for four straight sessions as investors prepared for the September jobs report for more insights on the labor market.
Gold remains at record high levels
Markets are closely monitoring developments in the Middle East, with concerns rising after US President Biden refrained on Thursday from directly condemning the possibility of Israel targeting Iran.
Moreover, Tel Aviv has vowed to respond to Iran, while increasing its activity in Beirut amid its conflict with Hezbollah.
Meanwhile, strong labor market data released earlier this week has dampened gold’s upward momentum by reducing the need for the Federal Reserve to implement a more accommodative monetary policy.
-The Institute for Supply Management data also indicated that U.S. services activity grew at its fastest rate in more than a year in September.
Markets now estimate a 65% chance that the Fed will cut interest rates by a modest 25 basis points in November.
Investors are looking ahead to September jobs data later today for more insights.
Other precious metals, such as silver, are also considered an alternative investment option, especially during uncertain economic times. Since precious metals are rare and have high economic value, especially metals like gold, they have historically been considered wise investment options. The best part is that these metals can be purchased with plans similar to systematic investment plans that allow buyers to spread their purchases over several months, making them more affordable and helping people manage their budget and invest for the long term. Over a period of time.
-Gold is steady in early Asian trade. Traders are awaiting U.S. nonfarm payrolls data due later in the day for clues on future interest rate moves by the Federal Reserve.
“Any sign of weakness could add to expectations that the Fed will continue to cut rates aggressively.” Gold typically has an inverse relationship with interest rates, with lower rates boosting the appeal of non-interest-bearing bullion. Spot gold was little changed at $2,655.91 an ounce.
Asian stocks rose on Friday while oil prices were set for their biggest weekly gain in more than a year, as escalating tensions in the Middle East kept markets on edge.
Oil prices were little changed due to the conflict in the Middle East and expectations of abundant supply, with Brent crude trading at $71.00 and West Texas Intermediate at $68.00.
Bearish bets on oil have found some room to ease this week amid growing concerns about potential supply disruptions in the Middle East, along with optimism that China’s recent economic stimulus efforts could provide some lift to demand, said IG market strategist Yip Junrong.
“The question now is whether there will be an actual disruption to crude supplies, which would keep prices in a waiting game over the weekend,” Yeap added.
US President Joe Biden said on Thursday the United States was debating whether to support Israeli strikes on Iranian oil facilities in response to Tehran’s missile attack on Israel, as the Israeli military hit Beirut with fresh airstrikes in its battle against the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah.
Biden’s comments helped send oil prices up 5% on Thursday, as Israel weighs its options after arch-foe Iran launched its largest-ever attack on Tuesday.
“Supply risks have returned to focus as tensions in the Middle East escalate, but we expect the impact to be limited,” analysts at ANZ Bank said in a note.
-Bitcoin price is holding above the $60,000 support level. It seems that Bitcoin is looking for a fresh rally above the $61,200 and $61,500 levels.
Smart technical reports
How they work
A likely scenario is proposed for today, and the probability of this scenario being achieved, according to technical analysis, may be between 60% and 75%.
If the first scenario fails, the probability of the second scenario being achieved will be between 60% and 75% certain.
The first scenario fails when the price reaches the level of the alternative scenario condition, and the alternative scenario is immediately activated and the prediction from the first scenario is cancelled.
These reports are not considered a substitute for the trader’s decision, but rather they are a tool to assist the follower in making his own decisions, as a reference based on the origins of classical technical analysis.
GOLD
General trend: Upward
Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 2659.41
Scenario 1: Buy gold with a break and stability above 2668.22, targeting 2674.65 and 2681.78
Alternative scenario: Sell gold with a break and stability below 2656.91, targeting 2650.39 and then 2642.56
Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an upward trend.
CRUDE OIL
Trend: Upward
Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: $73.61 per barrel
Scenario 1: Buy oil by breaking the $73.92 level, targeting $74.39 and then $74.95.
Alternative scenario: Sell oil with a break and stability by closing a candle below the $73.24 levels, targeting $72.72 and then $72.14.
Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an upward trend.
EURUSD
General trend: Down
Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 1.10316
Scenario 1: Sell EUR/USD after breaking 1.10183, targeting 1.10023 and then 1.09810.
Alternative scenario: Buy the EUR/USD with a break and hold with a candle closing above 1.10410, targeting 1.10595 and then 1.10819.
Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an upward trend.
GBPUSD
Trend: Down
Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 1.31479
Scenario 1: Selling the pound/dollar with a break and stability above the 1.31344 level, targeting the price of 1.31103 and then 1.30881
Alternative scenario: Buy GBP/USD with a break and hold at a buy close of 1.31644 with a target price of 1.31885 then 1.32171
Comment: Trading below the resistances and averages suggests a decline.
NAS100
Trend: Upward
Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 19989
Scenario 1: Buy Nasdaq with a break and hold to close above 20080 with a target price of 20184 then 20302
Alternative scenario: Sell Nasdaq with break and hold with close below 19923 with target price 19799 then 19692
Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an upward trend.
Economic Calendar
(Times are in GMT+3)
From USA Average Hourly Wages Index (Monthly) (September) 15:30
From the United States of America Non-Farm Employment Report (September) 15:30
From USA Unemployment Rate (September) 15:30
Fundamental Analysis
The dollar index held steady around 101.9 on Friday after rising for four straight sessions as investors prepared for the September jobs report for more insights into the labor market.
Traders do not expect any major market moves from the employment data unless it comes in significantly below expectations.
The index rose on Thursday to its highest level in more than six weeks amid strong US economic data and increased demand for safe havens due to escalating tensions in the Middle East.
U.S. services activity expanded at its fastest pace in more than a year in September, data from the Institute for Supply Management showed, while the latest job openings, private hiring and weekly unemployment claims numbers pointed to a still-resilient labor market.
Meanwhile, US President Biden suggested that Israel might target Iranian oil facilities in retaliation for a recent missile attack, sending oil prices higher and stimulating demand for safer assets.
The dollar also benefited from dovish signals in the UK, Europe and Japan.
Gold remained near $2,660 an ounce on Friday, trading at record levels, benefiting from its safe-haven status amplified by rising geopolitical risks.
Oil prices rose slightly in early Asian trading hours on Friday, maintaining strong weekly gains, as investors weighed the conflict in the Middle East and potential disruption to crude flows against a global market with abundant supplies.
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