Daily Market Analysis

 

Latest Economic and Fundamental Insights

 

• The US dollar falls after the release of negative US jobs data.
• Gold is poised to break the longest losing streak in 7 years as bond sales slow down. Gold fell for the eighth session in a row on Wednesday.
• Oil prices fall by more than 5% to touch the lowest level since September 1. Brent crude traded at $86.21 and West Texas crude at $83.48.
• The purchasing power of cryptocurrency investors reached its highest level in 6 months.

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Smart technical reports

 

 

How they work

A likely scenario for the day is proposed, and the probability of this scenario being achieved, according to technical analysis, could be between 60% and 75%. If the first scenario fails, the probability of the second scenario being achieved will be between 60% and 75%.

The first scenario fails when the price reaches the alternative scenario condition level, the alternative scenario is then immediately activated, and the first scenario prediction gets cancelled.

These reports are not considered a substitute for the trader’s decision, but rather they are a tool to assist the follower in making their own decisions, as a reference based on classical technical analysis.

 

 

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GOLD

 

 

General trend: bearish

Time interval: 30 minutes

Current price: $1,827.14
First scenario: Buy gold on the break when stable by closing the candle above $1,830.24, targeting a price of $1,834.63 and then $1,839.13.

Alternative scenario: Sell gold on the break of $1,824.38, targeting a price of $1,819.11 and then $1,814.10.

Comment: Trading below resistances and averages suggests a downtrend.

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CRUDE OIL

 

 

 

General trend: bearish

Time interval: 30 minutes

Current price: $83.48 per barrel

First scenario: Buy oil on the break when steady by closing the candle above the levels of $83.80, targeting a price of $84.35 and then $84.85.

Alternative scenario: Sell oil on the break of $83.18, targeting a price of $82.60 and then $82.08.

Comment: Trading below resistances and averages suggests a downtrend.

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EURUSD

 

 

 

General trend: bearish 

Time interval: 30 minutes

Current price: $1.05201
First scenario: Sell EURUSD on the break of $1.05119, targeting a price of $1.04959 and then $1.04786.

Alternative scenario: Buy EURUSD on the break when stable by closing the candle above $1.05349, targeting a price of $1.05536 and then $1.05746.

Comment: Trading below resistances and averages suggests a downtrend.

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GBPUSD

 

 

General trend: bearish

Time interval: 30 minutes

Current price: $1.21561
First scenario: Sell GBPUSD on the break when staying below $1.21420, targeting a price of $1.21223 and then $1.20999.

Alternative scenario: Buy GBPUSD on the break when stable by closing the candle above the levels of $1.21757, targeting a price of $1.22042 and then $1.22263.

Comment: Trading below resistances and averages suggests a downtrend.

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NAS100

 

 

 

General trend: bearish

Time interval: 30 minutes

Current price: $14,912
First scenario: Sell Nasdaq on the break when staying below $14,882, targeting a price of $14,828 and then $14,756.

Alternative scenario: Buy Nasdaq on the break when stable by closing the candle above the levels of $14,963, targeting a price of $15,024 and then $15,087.

Comment: Trading below resistances and averages suggests a downtrend.

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Economic Calendar

(Times are in GMT+3)

 

• Germany: Trade Balance Index at 9:00
• United States: Trade Balance Index at 15:30
• United States: Initial Jobless Claims Index at 15:30
• Canada: Ivey Purchasing Managers Index at 17:00

 

Fundamental Analysis

 

• The dollar index dropped to approximately 106.5 on Thursday, extending its losses from the previous session following the decline in Treasury yields. Weaker-than-expected US jobs data reduced the likelihood of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates again this year.
• The ADP report indicated that private sector job growth totaled 89,000 in September, the lowest since January 2021 and significantly lower than the 153,000 analysts had anticipated.
• Meanwhile, the ISM Services PMI suggested slower but still robust growth in the services sector in September, and factory orders rose more than expected in August. Investors are now looking forward to the weekly jobless claims data on Thursday and the nonfarm payrolls report for September on Friday for further guidance.
• The dollar declined across the board, with the most noticeable selling activity observed against the Australian and New Zealand dollars as risk sentiment improved.
• Gold rose above $1,820 per ounce on Thursday, recovering slightly from its seven-month lows as the dollar and Treasury yields fell due to weaker-than-expected US jobs data.
• The metal faced intense selling pressure last week amid hawkish signals from the US Federal Reserve, but traders began to reduce those bets in light of the latest data.
• West Texas Intermediate crude futures continued their losses, dropping below $85 a barrel on Wednesday and touching their lowest level since September 1 after the latest Energy Information Administration report pointed to weak gasoline demand. This decline followed news that Russia may lift its diesel ban in the coming days.
• Meanwhile, OPEC+ made no changes to its oil production policy for the group, following Saudi Arabia and Russia’s decision to extend voluntary supply cuts until the end of the year.
• In the United States, Environmental Impact Assessment data showed that crude oil inventories fell by 2.224 million barrels to 414.1 million barrels last week, but inventories at Cushing, Oklahoma, rose for the first time in eight weeks.
• Gasoline inventories increased by 6.481 million barrels, compared with expectations of a 161,000-barrel increase.