Daily Market Analysis

 

Latest Economic and Fundamental Insights

 

• The dollar gains strength due to a robust U.S. job market and the hawkish Federal Reserve.
• Gold remains fragile due to the surge in the U.S. dollar and yields; palladium at its lowest in 5 years. The metal extends its decline for an eighth consecutive session.
• Silver hits a 6.5-month low, and platinum reaches a one-year low. Silver stabilizes near its 7-month low recorded on Tuesday.
• Oil declines amid concerns about rising interest rates and awaits the OPEC+ committee. Brent crude trades at $90.76 and West Texas crude at $87.99.
• The Turkish lira trades at 27.5 per dollar after data showed that annual consumer price inflation in September rose to 61.53%, slightly below expectations and marking the third consecutive monthly increase in response to recent tax hikes and lira weakness.
• Bitcoin lost 1.59%, falling to $27,396.32.

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Smart technical reports

 

 

How they work

A likely scenario for the day is proposed, and the probability of this scenario being achieved, according to technical analysis, could be between 60% and 75%. If the first scenario fails, the probability of the second scenario being achieved will be between 60% and 75%.

The first scenario fails when the price reaches the alternative scenario condition level, the alternative scenario is then immediately activated, and the first scenario prediction gets cancelled.

These reports are not considered a substitute for the trader’s decision, but rather they are a tool to assist the follower in making their own decisions, as a reference based on classical technical analysis.

 

 

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GOLD

 

 

General trend: bearish

Time interval: 30 minutes

Current price: $1,818.59
First scenario: Buy gold on the break when stable by closing the candle above $1,823.24, targeting a price of $1,827.63 and then $1,832.12.

Alternative scenario: Sell gold on the break of $1,817.36, targeting a price of $1,812.10 and then $1,807.10.

Comment: Trading below resistances and averages suggests a downtrend.

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CRUDE OIL

 

 

 

General trend: bearish

Time interval: 30 minutes

Current price: $87.84 per barrel

First scenario: Buy oil on the break when steady by closing the candle above the levels of $88.33, targeting a price of $88.78 and then $89.31.

Alternative scenario: Sell oil on the break of $87.71, targeting a price of $87.27 and then $86.84.

Comment: Trading below resistances and averages suggests a downtrend.

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EURUSD

 

 

 

General trend: bearish 

Time interval: 30 minutes

Current price: $1.04590
First scenario: Sell EURUSD on the break of $1.04554, targeting a price of $1.04394 and then $1.04221.

Alternative scenario: Buy EURUSD on the break when stable by closing the candle above $1.04784, targeting a price of $1.04971 and then $1.05181.

Comment: Trading below resistances and averages suggests a downtrend.

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GBPUSD

 

 

General trend: bearish

Time interval: 30 minutes

Current price: $1.20621
First scenario: Sell GBPUSD on the break when staying below $1.20552, targeting a price of $1.20354 and then $1.20130.

Alternative scenario: Buy GBPUSD on the break when stable by closing the candle above the levels of $1.20889, targeting a price of $1.21173 and then $1.21395.

Comment: Trading below resistances and averages suggests a downtrend.

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NAS100

 

 

 

General trend: bearish

Time interval: 30 minutes

Current price: $14,627
First scenario: Sell Nasdaq on the break when staying below $14,612, targeting a price of $14,558 and then $14,486.

Alternative scenario: Buy Nasdaq on the break when stable by closing the candle above the levels of $14,693, targeting a price of $14,754 and then $14,817.

Comment: Trading below resistances and averages suggests a downtrend.

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Economic Calendar

(Times are in GMT+3)

 

• Europe: Retail Sales Index at 12:00
• United States: ADP Nonfarm Employment Change at 15:15
• United States: Markit Services and Composite PMI at 16:45
• United States: ISM Services PMI at 17:00

 

Fundamental Analysis

 

• The dollar saw a +0.07% rise on Tuesday, hitting its highest point in 10 and a half months. The U.S. job market’s strength provided support to the dollar, as employment opportunities unexpectedly rose in August. Furthermore, the hawkish comments from Cleveland Federal Reserve President Mester and Atlanta Federal Reserve President Bostic on Tuesday pushed the 10-year Treasury bond yields to their highest level in 16 years, further bolstering the dollar.
• Additionally, the stock market’s weakness on Tuesday increased demand for liquidity in dollars. The dollar retraced some of its gains after the yen reached its highest point in a week and a half, indicating Japan’s intervention in the currency market to support the yen.
• Economic news in the U.S. on Tuesday was better than expected and had a positive impact on the dollar. August’s JOLTS job openings unexpectedly rose by +690,000 to 9.61 million, signaling a stronger job market than anticipated, as opposed to the expected decline to 8.815 million.
• The hawkish comments from the Federal Reserve were also favorable for the dollar on Tuesday. Cleveland Federal Reserve President Mester stated, “I think we may need to raise the federal funds rate again this year and then hold it at this level for some time as we gather more information about economic developments and assess the effects of the financial tightening that has already taken place.” Atlanta Federal Reserve President Bostic also mentioned that the Federal Reserve still has “ways to go” regarding inflation and wants to keep interest rates at elevated levels “for a long time.”
• Gold prices retreated towards their lowest levels in seven months on Wednesday, as the dollar and bond yields rose following strong U.S. job data, prompting expectations of further tightening of monetary policy. Meanwhile, palladium fell to its lowest level since late 2018.
• Oil prices declined on Wednesday ahead of an OPEC+ ministerial meeting, with the market weighing supply concerns against fears that high-interest rates might reduce fuel demand.