enDaily Analysis 04/04/2024
Latest Economic and Fundamental Insights
Dollar index holds near recent lows as investors reassess rate hike expectations
- The dollar index was little changed on Thursday, hovering near its weakest levels in more than a week as investors reassessed interest rate hike expectations, while awaiting the latest US monthly jobs report.
Gold hits record high after Powell’s remarks
- Gold smashed through the record high again as US inflation fears resurface
- Gold hit an all-time high of $2,301.00 an ounce
- Powell said that “if the economy evolves broadly as we expect,” he and his colleagues at the Fed are largely in agreement that a low federal funds rate will be appropriate “at some point this year.”
- Traders are pricing in a 62% chance that the Fed will start cutting rates in June, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch tool. Lower interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding bullion.
US dollar to stay strong in coming months as markets pare back bets on timing, size of Fed rate cuts
- The US dollar is likely to stay strong in the coming months as markets pare back bets on the timing and size of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, according to foreign exchange strategists polled by Reuters.
- The dollar held below recent highs on Thursday as traders took comments from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell as dovish on the prospect of rate cuts this year while awaiting the latest US labor market readings.
- An unexpected slowdown in US services growth also underpinned rate cut bets and weighed on the dollar, though it remains the best-performing G10 currency this year so far as those bets are much more modest than they were three months ago.
Strong Australian services sector growth a headache for RBA
- Tesla’s year goes from bad to worse after delivery miss, rising competition
Oil prices rise on supply concerns, signs of US economic growth
- Brent crude futures trade at $89.00 a barrel, and West Texas Intermediate crude at $85.00 a barrel
- US crude oil stockpiles fell by 2.3 million barrels last week, more than analysts’ expectations in a Reuters poll for a decline of 1.5 million barrels. US government data is due later on Wednesday.
- Both June Brent and May West Texas Intermediate crude futures have risen for the past four days and closed on Wednesday at their highest since late October.
- A meeting of OPEC and its allies, including Russia, on Wednesday kept oil supply policy unchanged, pressing some countries to boost compliance with output cuts.
Bitcoin struggles to recover above $67,000 zone. BTC could gather bearish momentum if it closes below $64,500.
Smart technical reports
How they work
A likely scenario is proposed for today, and the probability of this scenario being achieved, according to technical analysis, may be between 60% and 75%.
If the first scenario fails, the probability of the second scenario being achieved will be between 60% and 75% certain.
The first scenario fails when the price reaches the level of the alternative scenario condition, and the alternative scenario is immediately activated and the prediction from the first scenario is cancelled.
These reports are not considered a substitute for the trader’s decision, but rather they are a tool to assist the follower in making his own decisions, as a reference based on the origins of classical technical analysis.
GOLD
General trend: bullish
Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 2298.91
The first scenario: Buy gold at a break and hold above 2306.19, with a target price of 2312.62 and 2320.01. Alternative scenario: Sell gold at a break and hold below 2294.81, with a price target of 2288.36 and then 2281.01.
Comment: Trading above supports and averages suggests an upward trend
CRUDE OIL
Trend: bullish
Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: $85.22 per barrel
The first scenario: Buying oil at a break and holding steady by closing the candle at the highest level at $85.51, targeting a price of $85.97, then 86.54. Alternative scenario: Selling oil at a break of $84.83, targeting a price of $84.30, then 83.72.
Comment: Trading above supports and averages suggests an upward trend
EURUSD
General trend: – Bearish
Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 1.08443 First scenario: Sell the Euro/Dollar at a break of 1.08278, targeting a price of 1.08118 then 1.07905. Alternative scenario: Buy the Euro/Dollar at a break of 1.08505, targeting a price of 1.08690 then 1.08914.
Comment: Trading below resistances and averages suggests a decline
GBPUSD
Trend: bullish
Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 1.26549
The first scenario: Buy the pound dollar at a break and hold at the highest level of 1.26623, targeting a price of 1.26909 then 1.27130. Alternative scenario: sell the pound dollar at a break and hold at a close below 1.26287, targeting a price of 1.26089 then 1.25866.
Comment: Trading above supports and averages suggests an upward trend
NAS100
Trend: down
Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 18454
The first scenario: Selling the Nasdaq at a break and holding steady with a close below 18424, targeting the price of 18382 then 18339. Alternative scenario: Buying the Nasdaq at a break and holding steady with a close above 18484, targeting the price of 18523 then 18569.
Comment: Trading below resistances and averages suggests a decline
Economic Calendar
(Times are in GMT+3)
- From China: Qingming Festival holiday closure
- From the United States: Unemployment claims data at 15:30
Fundamental Analysis
On Wednesday, ISM data showed a surprise slowdown in US services growth and a decline in services price growth, supporting rate cut expectations and weighing on the dollar.
At the same time, ADP data showed that 184,000 private sector jobs were added to the US economy in March, highlighting the resilience of the labor market.
Elsewhere, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said on Wednesday that the central bank will need more evidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward its 2% target before cutting rates.
Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic also told CNBC that he believes one cut may be possible, while San Francisco’s Mary Daly and Cleveland’s Loretta Mester reiterated their expectations for policy easing to begin this year.
Gold hit a record high on Thursday as Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell confirmed that recent job gains and higher-than-expected inflation readings do not significantly change the overall picture of the central bank’s monetary policy strategy.
Oil prices rose in early Asian trading on Thursday on supply concerns as major producers keep output cuts in place and on signs of stronger economic growth in the United States, the world’s largest oil consumer.
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