Daily Market Analysis

 

Latest Economic and Fundamental Insights

 

• The dollar index steadied near 103.8 on Monday morning, giving up gains from the previous session and facing renewed pressure from dovish comments by a central bank official.
• Data on Friday showed that eurozone inflation fell last month but core price growth remained stubbornly high.
• Gold steadied around $2,080 an ounce on Monday, supported by a weaker dollar and U.S. Treasury yields amid soft U.S. economic data.
• Investors are focused on key U.S. labour market and unemployment data due later in the week.
• Bart Melek, head of commodity strategy at TD Securities, said in a research note that upcoming U.S. economic data, such as the non-farm payrolls report, could be a catalyst for the precious metal to rise further if it comes in much weaker than expected.
• Oil rises as OPEC+ extends supply cuts, with Brent crude trading at $83.00 and WTI crude at $79.00.
• Saudi Arabia’s state news agency SPA said on Sunday that OPEC+, which consists of OPEC and allies like Russia, will extend voluntary output cuts until the second quarter. The move is likely to continue supporting oil prices.
• Bitcoin gains momentum above $62,000 resistance level, pointing to further upside towards $65,000 resistance level.

---

 

Smart technical reports

 

 

How they work

A likely scenario is proposed for today, and the probability of this scenario being achieved, according to technical analysis, may be between 60% and 75%.

If the first scenario fails, the probability of the second scenario being achieved will be between 60% and 75% certain.

The first scenario fails when the price reaches the level of the alternative scenario condition, and the alternative scenario is immediately activated and the prediction from the first scenario is cancelled.

These reports are not considered a substitute for the trader’s decision, but rather they are a tool to assist the follower in making his own decisions, as a reference based on the origins of classical technical analysis.

---

 

GOLD

 

General trend: bullish

Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 2081.42

The first scenario: Buy gold at a break and hold above 2085.28, with a target price of 2090.34 and 2097.29. Alternative scenario: Sell gold at a break and hold below 2077.05, with a price target of 2070.60 and then 2063.25.

Comment: Trading above supports and averages suggests an upward trend

---

 

CRUDE OIL

 

Trend: bullish

Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: $79.39 per barrel

The first scenario: Buying oil at a break and holding steady by closing the candle at the highest level at $79.74, targeting a price of $80.12, then 80.77. Alternative scenario: Selling oil at a break of $79.06, targeting a price of $78.54, then 77.96.

Comment: Trading above supports and averages suggests an upward trend

---

 

EURUSD

 

General trend:- Bullish

Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 1.08445

The first scenario: Buying Eurodollars at a break of 1.08504, targeting a price of 1.08688, then 1.08913. Alternative scenario: Selling Eurodollars at a break of 1.08276, targeting a price of 1.08116, then 1.07903. Comment: Trading above supports and averages suggests an upward trend

---

 

GBPUSD

 

Trend: down

Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 1.26634

The first scenario: selling the pound dollar at a fraction and holding below the level of 1.26403, targeting a price of 1.26206, then 1.25982. Alternative scenario: buying the pound dollar at a breaking point, and holding steady at a close above 1.26739, targeting a price of 1.27025, then 1.27247.

Comment: Trading below resistances and averages leads to a decline

---

 

NAS100

 

Trend: bullish

Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 18350

The first scenario: Buying Nasdaq at a break and holding steady with a close above 18378, targeting a price of 18417 then 18464. Alternative scenario: Selling Nasdaq at a break and holding steady with a close below 18319, targeting a price of 18277 then 18234.

Comment: Trading above supports and averages suggests an upward trend

---

 

Economic Calendar

 

(Times are in GMT+3)

• There is no important economic data today.

 

Fundamental Analysis

 

 

• Last week, data showed that US manufacturing activity contracted for the 16th consecutive month in February, while the University of Michigan consumer survey showed weaker-than-expected sentiment last month.
• On the monetary policy front, New York Federal Reserve President John Williams said he expects the central bank to cut interest rates later this year, although other policymakers have expressed reservations before supporting the dovish pivot.
• Markets are now looking ahead to Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s appearance before Congress this week for clues on the path of monetary policy.
• Investors are also looking ahead to key US jobs data and manufacturing figures this week.
• West Texas Intermediate crude futures rose above $80 a barrel on Monday, extending last week’s gains as OPEC and its allies will extend voluntary production cuts until the end of June.
• Saudi Arabia, the de facto leader of OPEC, said it will extend its voluntary production cut by 1 million barrels per day until the end of the second quarter, while Russia will cut its output and exports by 471,000 barrels per day.
• Iraq and the United Arab Emirates will also continue to cut production by 220,000 barrels per day and 163,000 barrels per day, respectively, until the end of June.
• Meanwhile, analysts said the decision was widely expected and did not come as a surprise.
• In the Middle East, uncertainty surrounding the ceasefire talks between Israel and Hamas, as well as continued Houthi attacks on shipping in the Red Sea, have added a risk premium to oil prices.