Daily Market Analysis

Latest Economic and Fundamental Insights

• The dollar index held steady around 104.4 on Thursday after rising for four consecutive sessions, as traders scaled back their expectations for the size of interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve this year.
• Gold stabilized as traders awaited jobs data for clues from the Fed.
• Traders are waiting for jobless claims and non-farm payroll data.
• The minutes showed that Federal Reserve officials are uncertain about interest rate expectations.
• Traders see a 70% chance of the Federal Reserve cutting the federal funds rate by 25 basis points in March.
• The markets see a 72% chance of a rate cut in March now, down from 90% a week ago.
• Oil prices continued to rise amid concerns about supplies in the Middle East, trading at $73 a barrel for Brent crude and $78 a barrel for West Texas Intermediate.
• More than 70% of major Japanese companies expect continued economic growth in 2024.
• The closure of Libya’s Sharara oil field is leading to supply cuts.
• U.S. crude oil stockpiles fell more than expected – API.
• OPEC+ meets on February 1 to review production cuts.
• The price of Bitcoin began to fall sharply to below $44,000 after rumors of a rejection by instant exchange funds. Bitcoin fell by more than 10%, but bulls are still defending the $40,000 support level.

Smart technical reports

How they work

A likely scenario for the day is proposed, and the probability of this scenario being achieved, according to technical analysis, could be between 60% and 75%. If the first scenario fails, the probability of the second scenario being achieved will be between 60% and 75%.

The first scenario fails when the price reaches the alternative scenario condition level, the alternative scenario is then immediately activated, and the first scenario prediction gets cancelled.

These reports are not considered a substitute for the trader’s decision, but rather they are a tool to assist the follower in making their own decisions, as a reference based on classical technical analysis.

GOLD

General trend: bearish

Time interval: 30 minutes

Current price: $2,046.83

First scenario: Sell gold on the break of $2,040.62, targeting a price of $2,034.17 and then $2,026.82.
Alternative scenario: Buy gold on the break when steady by closing the candle above the levels of $2,048.85, targeting a price of $2,053.91 and then $2,060.85.

Comment: Trading below resistances and averages suggests a downtrend.

CRUDE OIL

General trend: bullish

Time interval: 30 minutes

Current price: $73.49 per barrel

First scenario: Buy oil at a break of $73.69, targeting a price of $74.16 and then $74.72.
Alternative scenario: Sell oil on the level of $73.01, targeting a price of $72.49 and then $71.90.

Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an uptrend.

EURUSD

General trend: bullish

Time interval: 30 minutes

Current price: $1.09240

First scenario: Buy EURUSD on the break when steady by closing the candle above the levels of $1.09384, targeting a price of $1.09568 and then $1.09793.
Alternative scenario: Sell EURUSD on the break of $1.09156, targeting a price of $1.08997 and then $1.08784.

Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an uptrend.

GBPUSD

General trend: bearish

Time interval: 30 minutes

Current price: $1.26730

First scenario: Sell GBPUSD on the break of $1.26505, targeting a price of $1.26307 and then $1.26083.
Alternative scenario: Buy GBPUSD on the break when steady by closing the candle above the level of $1.26841, targeting a price of $1.27127 and then $1.27348.

Comment: Trading below resistances and averages suggests a downtrend.

NAS100

General trend: bearish

Time interval: 30 minutes

Current price: $16,559

First scenario: Sell Nasdaq on the break of $16,528, targeting a price of $16,486 and then $16,442.
Alternative scenario: Buy Nasdaq on the break when steady by closing the candle above the level of $16,587, targeting a price of $16,626 and then $16,672.

Comment: Trading below resistances and averages suggests a downtrend.

Economic Calendar

(Times are in GMT+3)

• Germany: Consumer Price Index (Annually) (December) at 9:30
• Germany: Consumer Price Index (Monthly) (December) at 9:30
• United States: Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (December) at 18:00
• United States: ADP Non-Farm Private Sector Employment Change (December) at 16:15
• United States: Initial Unemployment Claims at 16:30
• United States: Services Purchasing Managers’ Index (December) at 17:45
• U.S. Crude Oil Inventories at 19:00

Fundamental Analysis

• The dollar index stabilized around 104.4 on Thursday after rising for four consecutive sessions, as traders scaled back their expectations for the size of interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve this year.
• Federal Reserve officials confirmed that interest rates are likely to be lower in 2024, but they did not provide any clues about the timing of rate cuts, acknowledging a high level of uncertainty about the policy path.
• In the meantime, new economic data painted a mixed picture, with the ISM manufacturing PMI beating expectations while job openings came in below expectations.
• The markets are still expecting a roughly 70% chance of the first rate cut happening in March, down from a 90% chance seen a week ago.
• Investors are now looking to the monthly jobs report on Friday for further guidance.
• The dollar rose against the euro, yen, and yuan, but gave up some of its strength against the pound sterling and other currencies.
• Gold prices stabilized on Wednesday, as investors awaited more U.S. job data to gauge the next steps of the Federal Reserve on its monetary policy, though rising U.S. bond yields capped the upside for the metal.
• The minutes of the December 12-13 Federal Reserve meeting, released on Wednesday, showed that officials were confident that inflation was coming under control, but they also pointed to a high degree of uncertainty about the outlook for rate cuts.
• Oil prices rose on Thursday, adding to the strong gains they made in the previous session amid ongoing concerns about Middle East supplies following disruptions at a field in Libya and rising tensions over the war between Israel and Gaza.