Daily Market Analysis

 

Latest Economic and Fundamental Insights

 

• The dollar is poised for a weekly decline on peak-rate bets.
• Gold is moving sideways as traders look for direction from US jobs data. Gold fell 1% this week after three weeks of gains.
• The US non-farm payrolls report is due at 3:30 PM GMT+3.
• Palladium rose more than 1% on Friday.
• Oil prices are rising as risk appetite picks up broadly. Brent crude is trading at $87.07, while West Texas Intermediate is trading at $82.55.
• Bitcoin lost 1.07% to reach $34,929.33.

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Smart technical reports

 

 

How they work

A likely scenario for the day is proposed, and the probability of this scenario being achieved, according to technical analysis, could be between 60% and 75%. If the first scenario fails, the probability of the second scenario being achieved will be between 60% and 75%.

The first scenario fails when the price reaches the alternative scenario condition level, the alternative scenario is then immediately activated, and the first scenario prediction gets cancelled.

These reports are not considered a substitute for the trader’s decision, but rather they are a tool to assist the follower in making their own decisions, as a reference based on classical technical analysis.

 

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GOLD

 

General trend: bearish

Time interval: 30 minutes

Current price: $1,986.08

First scenario: Buy gold on the break when steady by closing the candle above the levels of $1,989.31, targeting a price of $1,994.37 and then $2,001.31.
Alternative scenario: Sell gold on the break of $1,981.08, targeting a price of $1,974.63 and then $1,967.39.

Comment: Trading below resistances and averages suggests a downtrend. 

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CRUDE OIL

 

 

General trend: bearish

Time interval: 30 minutes

Current price: $82.52 per barrel

First scenario: Buy oil on the break when steady by closing the candle above the levels of $82.72, targeting a price of $83.27 and then $83.77.
Alternative scenario: Sell oil on the break of $82.10, targeting a price of $81.52 and then $80.97.

Comment: Trading below resistances and averages suggests a downtrend.

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EURUSD

 

General trend: bullish

Time interval: 30 minutes

Current price: $1.06267

First scenario: Sell EURUSD on the break of $1.06117, targeting a price of $1.05958 and then $1.05766.
Alternative scenario: Buy EURUSD on the break when steady by closing the candle above the levels of $1.06347, targeting a price of $1.06535 and then $1.06744.

Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an uptrend.

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GBPUSD

 

General trend: bullish

Time interval: 30 minutes

Current price: $1.22019

First scenario: Sell GBPUSD on the break of $1.21784, targeting a price of $1.21586 and then $1.21362.
Alternative scenario: Buy GBPUSD on the break when steady by closing the candle above the levels of $1.22121, targeting a price of $1.22405 and then $1.22627.

Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an uptrend.

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NAS100

 

General trend: bullish

Time interval: 30 minutes

Current price: $14,960

First scenario: Sell Nasdaq on the break of $14,916, targeting a price of $14,862 and then $14,790.
Alternative scenario: Buy Nasdaq on the break when steady by closing the candle above the levels of $14,997, targeting a price of $15,058 and then $15,121.

Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an uptrend.

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Economic Calendar

(Times are in GMT+3)

 

• Europe: Change in employment index at 13:00
• Canada: Unemployment rate at 15:30
• Canada: Change in employment at 15:30
• United States: Non-farm payrolls report at 15:30
• United States: Unemployment rate at 15:30
• United States: Average hourly earnings at 15:30
• United States: Institute for Supply Management (ISM) non-manufacturing purchasing managers’ index at 17:00

 

Fundamental Analysis

 

• The dollar index traded around 106.1 on Friday and was set to end the week lower, influenced by growing expectations that the Federal Reserve may have ended its tightening cycle.
• The dollar also followed Treasury yields lower, with the US benchmark 10-year yield reaching its lowest level in three weeks near 4.6% on Thursday.
• The Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged on Wednesday, but left the door open for another rate hike amid continued high inflation and economic resilience.
• However, markets are betting that the central bank will not raise rates further as the impact of previous increases on the economy has not yet materialized.
• On the data front, the latest weekly jobless claims came in above expectations for the second week in a row, suggesting signs of a slowdown in the labor market.
• Investors are now looking to the October jobs report for further guidance.
• Gold struggled to gain momentum on Friday, with investors reluctant to make big bets ahead of the US non-farm payrolls report for October, which could provide more clues on the path of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate policy.
• West Texas Intermediate crude futures settled above $82 a barrel on Friday, but were still on track for a second consecutive weekly decline amid uncertain global demand expectations and with waning concerns that the conflict in the Middle East could disrupt supply.
• Earlier this week, weaker-than-expected manufacturing activity data in the United States and China cast a shadow over demand expectations in two of the world’s largest oil consumers.
• Investors also continued to monitor geopolitical developments in the Middle East, with the White House saying it is exploring a series of ceasefires in the conflict between Israel and Hamas to help people safely evacuate Gaza and allow humanitarian aid to enter.
• Meanwhile, West Texas Intermediate crude price jumped 2.5% on Thursday as risk appetite returned to markets after recent policy decisions from the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England gave the impression that central banks may have finished raising interest rates.