enDaily Analysis 03/10/2024
Latest Economic and Fundamental Insights
The dollar index rose above 101.7 on Thursday, rising for a fourth straight session to a three-week high, as strong U.S. private employment data supported the view that the Federal Reserve does not need to cut interest rates sharply.
Gold steady on safe-haven support
Earlier this week, Iran launched a missile attack on Israel, prompting Israel to intensify its strikes across the Middle East and vow to retaliate against Iran.
However, recent strong US employment data has limited gold’s upward momentum by reducing the need for the Federal Reserve to adopt a more accommodative monetary policy.
ADP data showed that more private sector jobs were created in September than expected, adding to the positive results from the JOLTS report and suggesting that the labor market was in better shape than previously thought at the start of the third quarter.
Markets now see a 66% chance that the Fed will cut interest rates by a modest 25 basis points in November.
-Low interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-interest-bearing bullion assets.
-Gold likely to rise amid fears of widening conflict between Israel and Iran — Market Talk
Gold is likely to trade higher as the risk of the Israel-Iran conflict escalating into a wider regional war grows.
The precious metal was struggling to benefit from risk flows, he said, as the diminishing prospects of a 50 basis point interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in November kept sentiment supported towards the dollar at the expense of the non-interest bearing metal.
He added that the focus is now shifting towards a new set of US economic data and speeches by Federal Reserve officials for new directions amid the escalating geopolitical conflict between Israel and Iran.
– Japanese stocks rise, yen falls as bets on Bank of Japan rate hike fade
– Japanese stocks jumped and the yen fell on Thursday as the risk of further monetary tightening this year faded, while a sharp rally in Hong Kong’s stock market stalled.
Oil rises as Middle East conflict escalates, gains capped by global supply outlook, Brent trades at $74.00, WTI at $70.00
-The Lebanese Ministry of Health said in a statement that an Israeli airstrike on the Al-Bashoura area in central Beirut early Thursday morning killed two people and wounded 11 others.
Iran entered the conflict on Tuesday after firing more than 180 ballistic missiles at Israel in an escalation of hostilities that spilled from Israel and Palestine into Lebanon and further east.
But an unexpected increase in U.S. crude inventories on Wednesday helped ease some supply concerns and capped oil price gains.
The US Energy Information Administration said US crude inventories rose by 3.9 million barrels to 417 million barrels in the week ending September 27, compared with analysts’ expectations in a Reuters poll for a decline of 1.3 million barrels.
“The rise in US inventories added further evidence that the market is well supplied and can withstand any disruptions,” analysts at ANZ Bank said in a note.
Some investors remained unfazed as global crude oil supplies have so far not been affected by disruptions in the key production region, and OPEC’s spare capacity has also eased concerns.
“After the Iran attack, prices may stay higher or stay more volatile for a little bit longer, but there is enough production, there is enough supply in the world,” Jim Simpson, CEO of East Daly Analytics, told Reuters.
-Bitcoin price is consolidating above the $60,000 support level. Bitcoin may target a fresh high unless there is a close below the $60,000 support level.
-Bitcoin price started to decline again below the $63,500 level. Bitcoin price is now holding above the $60,000 level and may face many obstacles on the upside.
Smart technical reports
How they work
A likely scenario is proposed for today, and the probability of this scenario being achieved, according to technical analysis, may be between 60% and 75%.
If the first scenario fails, the probability of the second scenario being achieved will be between 60% and 75% certain.
The first scenario fails when the price reaches the level of the alternative scenario condition, and the alternative scenario is immediately activated and the prediction from the first scenario is cancelled.
These reports are not considered a substitute for the trader’s decision, but rather they are a tool to assist the follower in making his own decisions, as a reference based on the origins of classical technical analysis.
GOLD
General trend: Upward
Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 2654.60
Scenario 1: Buy gold with a break and stability above 2659.26, targeting 2665.69 and 2672.82
Alternative scenario: Sell gold with a break and stability below 2647.88 with a target price of 2641.43 and then 2633.60
Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an upward trend.
CRUDE OIL
Trend: Upward
Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: $70.79 per barrel
Scenario 1: Buy oil by breaking the $71.13 level, targeting $71.60 and then $72.16.
Alternative scenario: Sell oil with a break and stability by closing a candle below the $70.45 levels, targeting $69.93 and then $69.35.
Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an upward trend.
EURUSD
General trend: Down
Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 1.10287
Scenario 1: Sell EUR/USD after breaking 1.10183, targeting 1.10023 and then 1.09810.
Alternative scenario: Buy the EUR/USD with a break and hold with a candle closing below 1.10183, targeting 1.10023 and then 1.09810.
Comment: Trading below the resistances and averages suggests a decline.
GBPUSD
Trend: Down
Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 1.31798
Scenario 1: Selling the pound/dollar with a break and stability above the 1.31683 level, targeting the price of 1.31443 and then 1.31221
Alternative scenario: Buy GBP/USD with a break and hold at a buy close of 1.31984 with a target price of 1.32224 then 1.32511
Comment: Trading below the resistances and averages suggests a decline.
NAS100
Trend: Upward
Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 19958
Scenario 1: Buy Nasdaq with a break and hold to close above 20030 with a target price of 20133 then 20251
Alternative scenario: Sell Nasdaq with break and hold with close below 19873 with target price 19748 then 19641
Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an upward trend.
Economic Calendar
(Times are in GMT+3)
From the United States of America unemployment claims rates 15:30
From USA Services PMI (September) 16:45
From the United States of America, the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Non-Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (September) 17:00
Fundamental Analysis
The dollar index rose above 101.7 on Thursday, rising for a fourth straight session to a three-week high, as strong U.S. private employment data supported the view that the Federal Reserve does not need to cut interest rates sharply.
The ADP report showed that 143,000 jobs were added to the private sector in September, exceeding expectations of 120,000 jobs, indicating that the labor market remains resilient.
Investors now look to the latest weekly jobless claims on Thursday and the September jobs report on Friday for more clarity on the path of interest rates.
Markets now see a 65% chance that the Fed will choose to cut interest rates by about 25 basis points in November, up from 43% a week ago.
The dollar hit a one-month high against the yen after Japan’s new prime minister said it was too early to raise interest rates again.
The US dollar also rose sharply against the euro amid cautious comments from a European Central Bank official.
Gold held steady around $2,655 an ounce on Thursday, remaining relatively close to record highs as the worsening crisis in the Middle East continued to boost the yellow metal’s safe-haven appeal.
Oil prices rose in early trading on Thursday as investors assessed the escalating conflict in the Middle East and the potential for disruption to crude flows in a global market that is already abundantly supplied with oil.
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