Daily Market Analysis

 

Latest Economic and Fundamental Insights

 

• The dollar remained close to its highest point in the past 10 months, largely due to the increase in Treasury bond yields. This rise was fueled by robust US economic data, which has strengthened the belief that the Federal Reserve will maintain high interest rates for an extended period.
• Gold, on the other hand, continued its downward trend for the seventh consecutive session, with the US Federal Reserve maintaining a hawkish stance. This marks the longest losing streak for gold since August 2022.
• Silver reached its lowest level in over six months, while platinum touched its lowest point in a year.
• Oil prices experienced a 1% decline, primarily driven by the strong performance of the US dollar and mixed signals in terms of supply. Brent crude was trading at $89.66, while West Texas crude stood at $87.09.
• The price of Bitcoin underwent a technical correction, but it appears that the bullish sentiment has not yet subsided.

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Smart technical reports

 

 

How they work

A likely scenario for the day is proposed, and the probability of this scenario being achieved, according to technical analysis, could be between 60% and 75%. If the first scenario fails, the probability of the second scenario being achieved will be between 60% and 75%.

The first scenario fails when the price reaches the alternative scenario condition level, the alternative scenario is then immediately activated, and the first scenario prediction gets cancelled.

These reports are not considered a substitute for the trader’s decision, but rather they are a tool to assist the follower in making their own decisions, as a reference based on classical technical analysis.

 

 

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GOLD

 

 

General trend: bearish

Time interval: 30 minutes

Current price: $1,818.81
First scenario: Buy gold on the break when stable by closing the candle above $1,821.81, targeting a price of $1,826.19 and then $1,830.69.

Alternative scenario: Sell gold on the break of $1,815.94, targeting a price of $1,810.67 and then $1,805.67.

Comment: Trading below resistances and averages suggests a downtrend.

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CRUDE OIL

 

 

 

General trend: bearish

Time interval: 30 minutes

Current price: $86.98 per barrel

First scenario: Buy oil on the break when steady by closing the candle above the levels of $87.37, targeting a price of $87.83 and then $88.36.

Alternative scenario: Sell oil on the break of $86.75, targeting a price of $86.31 and then $85.88.

Comment: Trading below resistances and averages suggests a downtrend.

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EURUSD

 

 

 

General trend: bearish 

Time interval: 30 minutes

Current price: $1.04645
First scenario: Sell EURUSD on the break of $1.04554, targeting a price of $1.04394 and then $1.04221.

Alternative scenario: Buy EURUSD on the break when stable by closing the candle above $1.04784, targeting a price of $1.04971 and then $1.05181.

Comment: Trading below resistances and averages suggests a downtrend.

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GBPUSD

 

 

General trend: bearish

Time interval: 30 minutes

Current price: $1.20621
First scenario: Sell GBPUSD on the break when staying below $1.20552, targeting a price of $1.20354 and then $1.20130.

Alternative scenario: Buy GBPUSD on the break when stable by closing the candle above the levels of $1.20889, targeting a price of $1.21173 and then $1.21395.

Comment: Trading below resistances and averages suggests a downtrend.

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NAS100

 

 

 

General trend: bearish

Time interval: 30 minutes

Current price: $14,962
First scenario: Sell Nasdaq on the break when staying below $14,937, targeting a price of $14,883 and then $14,811.

Alternative scenario: Buy Nasdaq on the break when stable by closing the candle above the levels of $15,018, targeting a price of $15,079 and then $15,142.

Comment: Trading below resistances and averages suggests a downtrend.

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Economic Calendar

(Times are in GMT+3)

 

• Switzerland: Inflation Rate at 9:30
• United States: Fed Bostic’s Speech at 15:00
• United States: Job Openings at 17:00
• United States: Crude Oil Inventories at 17:00

 

Fundamental Analysis

 

• The dollar continued its gains, surpassing 107 on Tuesday, reaching its highest point since last November. This surge was driven by the rise in Treasury bond yields, with strong US economic data reinforcing the belief that the Federal Reserve will maintain high interest rates for an extended period.
• The US Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (ISM) released on Monday indicated the smallest contraction in factory activity in nearly a year, dating back to September.
• Furthermore, news of a temporary agreement among US lawmakers over the weekend, which would keep government funding for another 45 days, further boosted the dollar.
• Investors are now eagerly awaiting comments from various Federal Reserve officials this week to gain additional insights into the central bank’s policy plans. Additionally, the key monthly jobs report due on Friday is of significant interest.
• The dollar currently hovers near its multi-month lows against the euro, pound sterling, and yen.
• Gold, on the other hand, continued its selling streak on Tuesday, marking its longest series of losses since August 2022. This followed comments from Federal Reserve officials affirming the likelihood of sustained high-interest rates. The US job openings data, scheduled for release later today, is also a factor in gold’s performance.
• Oil prices dipped by 1% in early Asian trading on Tuesday, following their recent drop to a three-week low in the previous session. This decline can be attributed to the strength of the US dollar, rising US bond yields, and mixed signals in the supply chain.