enDaily Analysis 03/09/2024
Latest Economic and Fundamental Insights
The dollar index held steady around 101.6 on Tuesday as investors braced for key U.S. jobs data this week that could influence the size of an expected interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve this month.
Gold stabilizes below $2,500
Key highlights this week include ISM surveys, JOLTS job openings, ADP employment report, and nonfarm payrolls.
Several Federal Reserve officials have recently highlighted the growing risks to the labor market.
Meanwhile, the latest US inflation data dampened expectations of a 50 basis point interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, with core and core personal consumption expenditures prices rising 0.2% in July, in line with expectations.
Markets still expect the Fed to cut interest rates by 100 basis points during its remaining three meetings this year, which would lower the opportunity cost of holding non-interest-bearing assets.
In Europe, the European Central Bank is also expected to cut interest rates, given the sharp slowdown in inflation reported in preliminary figures for August.
Gold prices fell in early Asian trading as markets await fresh cues. Having recently hit all-time highs, prices are likely to remain in consolidation mode in the near term as investors await a slew of key economic data this week that will guide the debate over the scope and pace of monetary policy easing by the Federal Reserve.
“For now, gold bulls may be hoping to see weaker US economic data this week to validate the Fed’s easing, but not too weak to renew recession fears.”
Asian stocks fell and investors bought the dollar and yen on Tuesday in a move toward safe-haven assets ahead of a series of data that could determine the extent of U.S. interest rate cuts later this month.
-Brent maintains its decline amid expectations of rising supplies, with Brent crude trading at $77.00 and West Texas Intermediate at $73.00.
OPEC recently announced plans to increase production, with eight OPEC+ members expected to increase their production by 180,000 barrels per day.
-Moreover, pessimism about Chinese demand growth intensified after an official survey showed that factory activity fell to a six-month low in August, as factory prices fell and orders fell.
This came after data from the US Energy Information Administration showed that US oil consumption in June fell to its lowest seasonal level since 2020, exacerbating concerns about demand from key markets.
Supply disruptions in Libya have helped limit the price decline, with the state oil company declaring force majeure at the key El Feel field on Monday as production shutdowns widened.
-Bitcoin price started a recovery wave from the $57,200 area. Bitcoin price is rising, but it may face difficulty to surpass the $60,200 and $61,150 resistance levels.
Smart technical reports
How they work
A likely scenario is proposed for today, and the probability of this scenario being achieved, according to technical analysis, may be between 60% and 75%.
If the first scenario fails, the probability of the second scenario being achieved will be between 60% and 75% certain.
The first scenario fails when the price reaches the level of the alternative scenario condition, and the alternative scenario is immediately activated and the prediction from the first scenario is cancelled.
These reports are not considered a substitute for the trader’s decision, but rather they are a tool to assist the follower in making his own decisions, as a reference based on the origins of classical technical analysis.
GOLD
General trend: Upward
Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 2496.15
Scenario 1: Buy gold with a break and stability above 2503.93, targeting 2510.36 and 2517.49
Alternative scenario: Sell gold with a break and stability below 2492.55, targeting 2486.11 and then 2478.27
Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an upward trend.
CRUDE OIL
Trend: Down
Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: $73.48 per barrel
Scenario 1: Sell oil by breaking the $73.08 level, targeting $72.55 and then $71.97.
Alternative scenario: Buy oil with a break and hold with a candle closing above $73.75, targeting $74.22 and then $74.79.
Comment: Trading below the resistances and averages suggests a decline.
EURUSD
General trend: Upward
Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 1.10554
Scenario 1: Buy EUR/USD by breaking 1.10757, targeting 1.10941 and then 1.11166.
Alternative scenario: Sell the EUR/USD with a break and stability with a candle closing below 1.10529, targeting 1.10370 and then 1.10157
Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an upward trend.
GBPUSD
Trend: Upward
Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 1.31139
Scenario 1: Buy the pound dollar with a break and stability above the level of 1.31384, targeting the price of 1.31624 and then 1.31911.
Alternative scenario: Selling the pound dollar with a break and stability with a close below 1.31083, targeting 1.30843 and then 1.30621
Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an upward trend.
NAS100
Trend: Upward
Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 19559
Scenario 1: Buy Nasdaq with a break and hold with a close above 19653, targeting 19757 then 19875
Alternative scenario: Sell Nasdaq with a break and hold with a close below 19496 with a target price of 19372 then 19265
Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an upward trend.
Economic Calendar
(Times are in GMT+3)
-From USA Manufacturing PMI (August) 16:45
-From USA Manufacturing PMI (August) 17:00
Fundamental Analysis
The dollar index held steady around 101.6 on Tuesday as investors braced for key U.S. jobs data this week that could influence the size of an expected interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve this month.
The latest jobless claims report is due out on Thursday, followed by August payrolls data on Friday.
Federal Reserve policymakers have signaled their willingness to lower borrowing costs amid concerns about the labor market.
Meanwhile, data released Friday showed that U.S. core personal consumption expenditures prices grew at a steady rate in July, dampening hopes that the central bank could cut interest rates by 50 basis points in September.
Markets price in a 69% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut this month and a 31% chance of a larger 50 basis point cut.
The dollar hit a two-week high against the euro and the yen.
Gold held below $2,500 an ounce on Tuesday, extending its slide from record highs hit last week as investors awaited U.S. data to revise their expectations for the size of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cut.
Brent crude futures settled around $77 a barrel on Tuesday after facing heavy selling pressure in recent sessions, weighed down by growing expectations of rising supplies.
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