Daily Market Analysis

 

 

Latest Economic and Fundamental Insights

 

The dollar index held steady around 105.7 on Wednesday after facing pressure in recent sessions, as investors continued to assess the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy outlook in light of stronger-than-expected jobs data and the latest comments from the central bank’s chief.

Gold steady as investors focus on Fed minutes

-The minutes of the Federal Reserve meeting are scheduled to be released at 21:00 Mecca time.

-US Non-Farm Payrolls Report due Friday

Marex analyst Edward Meyer said the gold market has been stable and steady in a narrow range for the past few weeks, adding that bullion prices could rise later this year with all these elections in the air.

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said Tuesday ahead of the release of minutes from his meeting at 21:00 Mecca time that the United States is back on a “disinflationary path,” but policymakers need more data before cutting interest rates to verify that recent weaker inflation readings provide an accurate picture of the economy.

-The next data on investors’ radar is the ADP weekly employment and jobless claims data due later today, and the non-farm payrolls (NFP) report due on Friday.

“This week’s nonfarm payrolls release could shake things up (for the gold market) if we see a shift in interest rate cut expectations,” said Tim Waterer, chief market analyst at KCM Trade.

Traders see a 67% chance of the Fed cutting interest rates in September, according to the CME FedWatch tool.

Low interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion.

“There is a clear path for gold to outperform from here, likely driven by Western flows,” the World Gold Council said in its mid-year outlook. “Conversely, if central bank demand falls significantly, interest rates remain high for longer and Asian investor sentiment is volatile, we could see a pullback in the second half.”

Asian stocks rose on Wednesday after comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell reinforced expectations that a U.S. interest rate cut is not far off, while the yen struggled to levels not seen since 1986, keeping traders wary of Japanese intervention.

Oil rises on lower US crude inventories and Middle East tensions, with Brent trading at $86.00 and WTI at $82.00

Benchmark crude prices closed lower on Tuesday as concerns faded that Hurricane Beryl could disrupt production in the Gulf of Mexico. The hurricane is expected to weaken to a tropical storm by the time it enters the Gulf of Mexico late this week, according to the U.S. National Hurricane Center.

“After the previous rally on concerns of supply disruptions due to Typhoon Beryl, there could be some pullback as greater clarity suggests a limited potential impact,” said IG market strategist Yip Jun Rong.

-U.S. crude oil inventories fell by 9.163 million barrels in the week ended June 28, according to market sources citing figures from the American Petroleum Institute on Tuesday. Gasoline stocks, however, rose by 2.468 million barrels, and distillates fell by 740,000 barrels.

-Bitcoin price failed to continue rising above the $63,650 resistance area. Bitcoin is now correcting the gains and may revisit the $60,850 support level.

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Smart technical reports

 

 

How they work

A likely scenario is proposed for today, and the probability of this scenario being achieved, according to technical analysis, may be between 60% and 75%.

If the first scenario fails, the probability of the second scenario being achieved will be between 60% and 75% certain.

The first scenario fails when the price reaches the level of the alternative scenario condition, and the alternative scenario is immediately activated and the prediction from the first scenario is cancelled.

These reports are not considered a substitute for the trader’s decision, but rather they are a tool to assist the follower in making his own decisions, as a reference based on the origins of classical technical analysis.

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GOLD

 

General trend: Down (break not confirmed)

Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 2337.07 Scenario 1: Sell gold with a break and stability below 2328.78 with a target price of 2322.33 and 2316.10

Alternative scenario: Buy gold with a break and stability above 2340.16, targeting 2346.59 and then 2353.72

Comment: Trading below the resistances and averages suggests a decline.

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CRUDE OIL

 

Trend: Upward

Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: $82.72 per barrel

Scenario 1: Buy oil with a break and stability by closing a candle above the $82.97 levels, targeting $83.44 and then $84.00.

Alternative scenario: Sell oil by breaking $82.29 with a target price of $81.77 then $81.18

Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an upward trend.

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EURUSD

 

General trend: bullish

Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 1.07425

Scenario 1: Buy EUR/USD by breaking 1.7556, targeting 1.07741 and then 1.07966

Alternative scenario: Sell the EUR/USD with a break and stability with a candle closing below 1.07329, targeting 1.07169 and then 1.06956.

Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an upward trend.

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GBPUSD

 

Trend: bullish

Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 1.26869

Scenario 1: Buy the pound dollar with a break and stability above the level of 1.27019, targeting the price of 1.27305 and then 1.27526.

Alternative scenario: Sell the pound dollar with a break and stability with a close below 1.26683, targeting 1.26485 and then 1.26261.

Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an upward trend.

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NAS100

 

Trend: bullish

Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 20247

Scenario 1: Buy Nasdaq with a break and hold with a close above 20297, targeting 20366 then 20447

Alternative scenario: Sell Nasdaq with break and hold with close below 20195 price 20138 then 20087

Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an upward trend.

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Economic Calendar

 

(Times are in GMT+3)

-From USA – Independence Day – Closing starts at 13:00
-From USA ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (June) 15:15
-From USA Unemployment Claims Index 15:30
-From USA Services PMI (June) 16:45

– ISM Non-Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index 17:00

-US crude oil inventory 17:30

-Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee Meeting 21:00

 

Fundamental Analysis

 

 

The dollar index held steady around 105.7 on Wednesday after facing pressure in recent sessions, as investors continued to assess the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy outlook in light of stronger-than-expected jobs data and the latest comments from the central bank’s chief.

The JOLTS report released Tuesday showed that job openings increased by 221,000 jobs to 8.140 million in May, beating expectations of 7.91 million.

Meanwhile, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said the central bank has made significant progress on inflation but needs more confidence before cutting interest rates.

Investors now look to the latest FOMC meeting minutes and more jobs data on Wednesday, as well as Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report for further guidance.

The dollar was steady against most major currencies, but remained at a three-year high against the yen.

Gold prices steadied on Wednesday as investors awaited minutes from the Federal Reserve’s latest policy meeting for fresh clues on when the U.S. central bank will start cutting interest rates.

Oil prices rose on Wednesday after industry data showed a larger-than-expected draw in U.S. crude inventories, while the market monitored rising tensions in the Middle East.