Daily Market Analysis

 

 

 

Latest Economic and Fundamental Insights

 

  The dollar index stabilized around 104.6 on Monday after declining for two consecutive sessions, affected by a weak inflation reading in the United States that kept the door open for the Federal Reserve (the US central bank) to reduce interest rates later this year.

-US jobs data is scheduled to be released on Friday

“The catalyst in the short term will be the jobs data, and if it shows a little bit of a slowdown in the labor market, you know that will be good for gold prices,” said Kyle Rodda, a financial markets analyst at Capital.

-Investors will look to the nationwide Purchasing Managers’ Index (ISM) reading expected at 1400 GMT, Wednesday’s ADP employment report and Friday’s non-farm payrolls data to gauge the health of the US economy and whether that will prevent the Fed from cutting rates. Interest in 2019. September.

“Gold is getting a little support after personal consumption expenditures (PCE) numbers that were marginally lower than expected supported the idea that the Fed could cut interest rates this year,” Rodda said.

Data on Friday showed that US inflation stabilized in April, raising bets on an interest rate cut in September. Traders currently expect about a 54% chance of a cut in September, versus about 49% before the report. (Fedwatch)

While bullion is considered a hedge against inflation, rising interest rates increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets.

-Personal Consumption Expenditures: The Fed’s preferred measure of inflation comes in line with expectations at 2.7% for April

On Monday, the Chinese yuan continued its losses against the dollar after recording declines for the fifth consecutive month in May, affected by seasonal demand for foreign exchange.

-Oil stabilizes as investors consider extending the OPEC+ production cut, with Brent crude trading at $80.00 and West Texas Intermediate crude at $76.00.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies led by Russia, known as the OPEC+ group, are currently reducing production by a total of 5.86 million barrels per day, which is equivalent to about 5.7% of global demand.

This includes 3.66 million barrels per day of cuts that were scheduled to end at the end of 2024, and voluntary cuts for eight members of 2.2 million barrels per day that end at the end of June 2024.

-But the group agreed on Sunday to extend cuts of 3.66 million barrels per day for a year until the end of 2025. It will also extend cuts of 2.2 million barrels per day for three months until the end of September 2024, before gradually canceling them over a year. From October 2024 to September 2025.

-Bitcoin price continued its losses and fell below the $67,200 level. BTC found support near $66,650 and is now consolidating in a defined range.

-Bitcoin price started a recovery wave from the $67,000 area. BTC is now struggling to clear the $68,800 and $69,500 resistance levels.

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Smart technical reports

 

 

How they work

A likely scenario is proposed for today, and the probability of this scenario being achieved, according to technical analysis, may be between 60% and 75%.

If the first scenario fails, the probability of the second scenario being achieved will be between 60% and 75% certain.

The first scenario fails when the price reaches the level of the alternative scenario condition, and the alternative scenario is immediately activated and the prediction from the first scenario is cancelled.

These reports are not considered a substitute for the trader’s decision, but rather they are a tool to assist the follower in making his own decisions, as a reference based on the origins of classical technical analysis.

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GOLD

 

General trend: bullish

Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 2318.49

The first scenario: Buy gold at a break and hold above 2325.48, with a target price of 2331.91 and 2339.04.

Alternative scenario: sell gold at a break and hold below 2314.10, with a target price of 2307.65 and then 2301.42.

Comment: Trading above supports and averages suggests an upward trend

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CRUDE OIL

 

Trend: bearish

Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: $76.62 per barrel

The first scenario: selling oil at a break and holding steady by closing the candle below the $76.34 level, targeting a price of $75.82, then 75.24. Alternative scenario: buying oil at a break of the $77.02 level, targeting a price of $77.49, then 78.05.

Comment: Trading below resistances and averages suggests a decline

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EURUSD

 

General trend: bullish

Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 1.08520

The first scenario: Buying Eurodollars at a break of 1.08626, targeting a price of 1.08810, then 1.09035.

Alternative scenario: sell the euro/dollar at a break and hold steady by closing the candle below 1.083399, targeting the price of 1.08239 then 1.08026.

Comment: Trading above supports and averages suggests an upward trend

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GBPUSD

 

Trend: down

Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 1.27371

The first scenario: selling the pound dollar at a break and holding below the level of 1.27209, targeting the price of 1.27011 then 1.26788.

Alternative scenario: Buy the pound dollar at a break and hold steady by closing above 1.27545, targeting the price of 1.27831 then 1.28052.

Comment: Trading below resistances and averages suggests a decline

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NAS100

 

Trend: down

Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 18646

The first scenario: sell Nasdaq at a break and hold steady with a close below 18585, targeting the price of 18528 then 18477.

Alternative scenario: Buy Nasdaq at a break and hold firm by closing at the highest level of 18687, price of 18756, then 18837.

Comment: Trading below resistances and averages suggests a decline

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Economic Calendar

 

(Times are in GMT+3)

From New Zealand, King’s Day holiday closure
– From the United States of America, Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (May) 16:45
– From the United States of America, Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index issued by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) (May)

 

Fundamental Analysis

 

 

The dollar index stabilized around 104.6 on Monday after declining for two consecutive sessions, affected by a weak inflation reading in the United States that kept the door open for the Federal Reserve (the US central bank) to cut interest rates later this year.

Core PCE prices, the Fed’s preferred measure of core inflation, rose 0.2% in April, below market expectations of no change at 0.3% and the slowest pace so far this year.

In addition, personal spending and income growth declined in April.

Markets now expect about a 53% probability of a Fed rate cut in September compared to about 49% before the report.

Investors are now looking to more US economic reports this week including Monday’s manufacturing data and Friday’s monthly jobs report to further guide expectations.

Markets will also be interested in the policy decision the European Central Bank will make this week as it is expected to start cutting interest rates.
There was little change in gold prices on Monday as traders awaited more US economic data this week, after recent data showed that inflation had stabilized and raised hopes that the Federal Reserve would cut interest rates later this year.

There was little change in oil prices on Monday, as investors studied the OPEC+ producing group’s move to extend deep production cuts until 2025.

Oil prices fell early Friday as investors responded to comments from US Federal Reserve officials who said it was too early to start considering interest rate cuts, and following a surprise increase in US gasoline inventories that weighed on the market.