enDaily Analysis 03/04/2024
Latest Economic and Fundamental Insights
With the debate over the timing and size of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts intensifying, the US jobs report for March due on Friday takes on added importance for financial markets.
Investors are expecting a gain of 200,000 jobs, unemployment to remain at 3.9%, and a 0.3% monthly increase in average hourly earnings after 0.1% in February. With Treasury yields rising to their highest levels in several months and Wall Street showing signs of fatigue, a stronger-than-expected jobs report could lead to an equity market correction.
Gold shatters record again as US inflation fears resurface
- Gold hits all-time high of $2,288.09 an ounce
- Asia’s appetite for platinum jewelry cools, limiting global usage
Markets brace for supply chain shockwaves
- Taiwan’s strongest earthquake in at least 25 years hits global supply chain pressure point
Chinese yuan falls against dollar on Wednesday, shy of hitting daily trading limit as resilient US economic data reinforces bets that the Federal Reserve will hold off on cutting interest rates.
Dollar on front foot on Wednesday, pinning yen near multi-decade lows, though rising threat of currency intervention from Tokyo caps further losses in Japanese currency.
Australian consumer confidence falls last week
- Tesla delivers fewer than 390,000 electric vehicles in Q1, missing estimates
- German inflation falls to lowest in three years
Oil rises as supply concerns grip market; Brent crude trades at $88.00, WTI at $84.00
- US crude oil stockpiles fell by 2.3 million barrels last week, exceeding analysts’ expectations in a Reuters poll for a drop of 1.5 million barrels. US government data is due later on Wednesday.
- Russia, one of the world’s three largest oil producers and a major exporter of oil products, is facing Ukrainian attacks on its refineries as it attacks energy infrastructure in Ukraine.
Bitcoin price continued its decline below the $65,000 support zone. BTC is now consolidating losses and a recovery rally could try to reach $67,000.
Smart technical reports
How they work
A likely scenario is proposed for today, and the probability of this scenario being achieved, according to technical analysis, may be between 60% and 75%.
If the first scenario fails, the probability of the second scenario being achieved will be between 60% and 75% certain.
The first scenario fails when the price reaches the level of the alternative scenario condition, and the alternative scenario is immediately activated and the prediction from the first scenario is cancelled.
These reports are not considered a substitute for the trader’s decision, but rather they are a tool to assist the follower in making his own decisions, as a reference based on the origins of classical technical analysis.
GOLD
General trend: bullish
Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 2283.87
The first scenario: Buy gold at a break and hold above 2290.63, with a target price of 2297.06 and 2304.44. Alternative scenario: Sell gold at a break and hold below 2279.25, with a price target of 2272.80 and then 2265.44.
Comment: Trading above supports and averages suggests an upward trend
CRUDE OIL
Trend: bullish
Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: $84.63 per barrel
The first scenario: Buying oil at a break and holding steady by closing the candle at the highest level at $85.04, targeting a price of $85.51, then 86.07. Alternative scenario: Selling oil at a break of $84.36, targeting a price of $83.84, then 83.25.
Comment: Trading above supports and averages suggests an upward trend
EURUSD
General trend: – Bearish
Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 1.07761
The first scenario: sell the euro/dollar at a break of 1.07628, targeting a price of 1.07468, then 1.07255. Alternative scenario: buy the euro/dollar at a break of 1.07855, targeting a price of 1.08040, then 1.08264.
Comment: Trading below resistances and averages suggests a decline
GBPUSD
Trend: down
Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 1.25785
The first scenario: Selling the pound dollar at a fraction and holding below the level of 1.25543, targeting the price of 1.25345, then 1.25121. The alternative scenario: Buying the pound dollar at a break, and holding steady by closing above 1.25879, targeting the price of 1.26165, then 1.26386.
Comment: Trading below resistances and averages suggests a decline
NAS100
Trend: down
Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 18299
The first scenario: sell the Nasdaq at a break and hold with a close below 18278, targeting the price of 18236 then 18192. Alternative scenario: buy the Nasdaq at a break and hold with a close above 18337, targeting the price of 18376 then 18423.
Comment: Trading below resistances and averages suggests a decline
Economic Calendar
(Times are in GMT+3)
- Europe releases Consumer Price Index (annual) for March at 12:00
- US releases ADP Non-Farm Private Employment Change (March) at 15:15
- Services PMI (March) at 16:45
- ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (March) at 17:00
- US Crude Oil Inventories at 17:30
- Fed Chair Powell speaks at 19:10
Fundamental Analysis
Recent data pointing to a strong US economy with more signs of firm inflation has not only raised the likelihood that the Fed will delay easing until July or later, but has also increased the likelihood of a rate cut this year.
- US jobs and factory orders data beat expectations on Tuesday, and a manufacturing survey on Monday showed the sector grew for the first time in a year and a half in March, while inflation at the factory gate rose.
- The inflation news is a particular setback for the Fed’s expectations as it comes on the heels of reports of strong consumer and producer price increases in March.
- Indeed, Fed Chair Jerome Powell and other officials have made it clear that the central bank is in no hurry to cut rates, even as it sticks to the possibility of three cuts this year.
- Investors are expecting a gain of 200,000 jobs, unemployment to remain at 3.9%, and a 0.3% monthly increase in average hourly earnings after 0.1% in February. With Treasury yields rising to their highest levels in several months and Wall Street showing signs of fatigue, a stronger-than-expected jobs report could lead to an equity market correction.
Gold prices continued to hit record highs on Wednesday as inflation fears boosted demand for gold as a hedge, with bullion dealers shrugging off doubts about an imminent US rate cut and rising Treasury yields.
- Oil prices extended their gains on Wednesday as a larger-than-expected decline in US crude stocks and rising geopolitical tensions fueled investor concerns about supply shortages.
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