Daily Market Analysis

 

Latest Economic and Fundamental Insights

 

• The dollar fell on Wednesday, as yields declined and the Federal Reserve signaled that it would pause interest rate hikes.
• Gold also fell, tracking the dollar and yields lower after the Fed kept rates unchanged.
• The markets are awaiting the release of US non-farm payroll data on Friday.
• US 10-year Treasury yields fell to their lowest level in more than two weeks.
• Oil prices rose more than 1% after the Fed kept rates unchanged. Brent crude traded at $85.32, while West Texas Intermediate traded at $81.05.
• Bitcoin price reached $36,000.

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Smart technical reports

 

 

How they work

A likely scenario for the day is proposed, and the probability of this scenario being achieved, according to technical analysis, could be between 60% and 75%. If the first scenario fails, the probability of the second scenario being achieved will be between 60% and 75%.

The first scenario fails when the price reaches the alternative scenario condition level, the alternative scenario is then immediately activated, and the first scenario prediction gets cancelled.

These reports are not considered a substitute for the trader’s decision, but rather they are a tool to assist the follower in making their own decisions, as a reference based on classical technical analysis.

 

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GOLD

 

General trend: bearish

Time interval: 30 minutes

Current price: $1,985.62

First scenario: Buy gold on the break when steady by closing the candle above the levels of $1,989.31, targeting a price of $1,994.37 and then $2,001.31.
Alternative scenario: Sell gold on the break of $1,981.08, targeting a price of $1,974.63 and then $1,967.39.

Comment: Trading below resistances and averages suggests a downtrend. 

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CRUDE OIL

 

 

General trend: bearish

Time interval: 30 minutes

Current price: $80.96 per barrel

First scenario: Buy oil on the break when steady by closing the candle above the levels of $81.23, targeting a price of $81.78 and then $82.28.
Alternative scenario: Sell oil on the break of $80.61, targeting a price of $80.03 and then $79.51.

Comment: Trading below resistances and averages suggests a downtrend.

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EURUSD

 

General trend: bullish

Time interval: 30 minutes

Current price: $1.05960

First scenario: Sell EURUSD on the break of $1.05850, targeting a price of $1.05690 and then $1.05498.
Alternative scenario: Buy EURUSD on the break when steady by closing the candle above the levels of $1.06080, targeting a price of $1.06267 and then $1.06476.

Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an uptrend.

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GBPUSD

 

General trend: bullish

Time interval: 30 minutes

Current price: $1.21825

First scenario: Sell GBPUSD on the break of $1.21695, targeting a price of $1.21497 and then $1.21273.
Alternative scenario: Buy GBPUSD on the break when steady by closing the candle above the levels of $1.22031, targeting a price of $1.22316 and then $1.22538.

Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an uptrend.

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NAS100

 

General trend: bullish

Time interval: 30 minutes

Current price: $14,803

First scenario: Sell Nasdaq on the break of $14,766, targeting a price of $14,712 and then $14,641.
Alternative scenario: Buy Nasdaq on the break when steady by closing the candle above the levels of $14,847, targeting a price of $14,908 and then $14,971.

Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an uptrend.

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Economic Calendar

(Times are in GMT+3)

 

• Switzerland: Annual Inflation Rate Index at 10:30
• Europe: Industrial Purchasing Managers’ Index at 12:00
• UK: Interest Rate Index at 15:00
• US: Initial Jobless Claims Index at 15:30

 

Fundamental Analysis

 

• The dollar fell to around 106.3 on Thursday, sharply down from its highest level in a month and tracking the decline in Treasury yields, with the US benchmark 10-year yield falling to its lowest level in two weeks at 4.7%.
• These moves came as the Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged for the second time, as widely expected.
• However, the Central Bank left the door open for further monetary tightening amid continued rising inflation, but growing recession fears led traders to speculate on possible interest rate cuts.
• On the data front, the JOLTS report showed that job openings were higher than expected, adding to evidence of strong labor conditions.Investors now look to the monthly jobs report on Friday for further guidance.
• The dollar fell across all sectors, with the most pronounced selling activity against the Australian and New Zealand dollars.
• Gold price rose on Thursday, supported by weakness in the US dollar and Treasury yields after the Federal Reserve kept interest rates stable and with investors increasing their bets that the central bank may be content with a single rate hike.
• Oil prices rose more than 1% on Thursday, ending a three-day decline, with risk appetite returning to financial markets after the US Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged.