enDaily Analysis 02/10/2024
Latest Economic and Fundamental Insights
The dollar index held steady around 101.2 on Wednesday after rising for two straight sessions, supported by escalating conflict in the Middle East that spurred demand for safer assets.
Gold stabilizes near record levels
-Israel said Iran fired more than 180 ballistic missiles at the country on Tuesday in response to Israeli military operations against Tehran’s Hezbollah allies in Lebanon.
In response, the Israeli military announced on Wednesday that its air force would intensify its strikes across the Middle East, and pledged to respond to Iran.
Meanwhile, the latest economic data offered a mixed outlook, with the ISM Purchasing Managers’ Index pointing to another sharp contraction in the US manufacturing sector and falling factory gate prices, giving the Federal Reserve room to continue cutting interest rates.
However, job openings rose to 8.04 million, beating expectations.
-More recently, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that any further cuts would likely be smaller, perhaps in quarter-point increments.
Gold prices fell in early Asian trading. Prices had recently risen amid rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
-The overall outlook for gold remains driven by dovish monetary policies by many central banks and global economic uncertainty.
“With the Fed focused on labor market conditions, any major developments in employment numbers could drive additional volatility in gold prices throughout the week.” Spot gold was down 0.2% at $2,658.28 an ounce.
Most Asian stock markets fell on Wednesday, dragged down by a sell-off on Wall Street after an Iranian missile attack on Israel raised fears of a wider regional conflict, while crude oil prices rose amid the risk of supply disruptions.
Oil prices jump more than a dollar as tensions escalate in the Middle East, with Brent crude trading at $74.00 and West Texas Intermediate at $70.00.
Oil prices rise amid fears of supply disruption in the Middle East, Iran fires more than 180 ballistic missiles at Israel and says the attack is over, Israel and the United States vow to respond to Tehran, and the OPEC+ committee meets later on Wednesday
Oil markets have largely focused on the narrative of weak global economic outlook impacting fuel demand, said Priyanka Sachdeva, senior market analyst at Philip Nova.
“However, the balance has quickly shifted towards fears of disruption to oil supplies in the Middle East after Iran fired ballistic missiles at Israel,” Sachdeva said.
Iran said early Wednesday its missile attack on Israel was over if there were no further provocations, as Israel and the United States vowed to respond to Tehran as fears of a wider war mounted.
Tehran said any Israeli response to the attack, which Israel said involved more than 180 ballistic missiles, would be met with “widespread destruction.”
The UN Security Council is scheduled to meet on the Middle East on Wednesday, and the European Union has called for an immediate ceasefire.
Direct intervention by OPEC member Iran raises the possibility of disruptions to oil supplies, analysts at ANZ Bank said in a note, adding that the country’s oil production rose to a six-year high of 3.7 million barrels per day in August.
“A major escalation by Iran could drag the US into a war,” Capital Economics said in a note. “Iran accounts for about 4% of global oil production, but the key consideration will be whether Saudi Arabia will increase production if Iranian supplies are disrupted.”
A panel of ministers from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, known as OPEC+, meets later on Wednesday to review the market, and no policy changes are expected. OPEC+, which includes Russia, is set to raise output by 180,000 barrels per day a month from December.
-Bitcoin price started to decline again below the $63,500 level. Bitcoin price is now holding above the $60,000 level and may face many obstacles on the upside.
Smart technical reports
How they work
A likely scenario is proposed for today, and the probability of this scenario being achieved, according to technical analysis, may be between 60% and 75%.
If the first scenario fails, the probability of the second scenario being achieved will be between 60% and 75% certain.
The first scenario fails when the price reaches the level of the alternative scenario condition, and the alternative scenario is immediately activated and the prediction from the first scenario is cancelled.
These reports are not considered a substitute for the trader’s decision, but rather they are a tool to assist the follower in making his own decisions, as a reference based on the origins of classical technical analysis.
GOLD
General trend: Upward
Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 2649.22
Scenario 1: Buy gold with a break and stability above 2654.53, targeting 2660.89 and 2668.08
Alternative scenario: Sell gold with a break and stability below 2643.14 with a target price of 2636.70 and then 2628.86
Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an upward trend.
CRUDE OIL
Trend: Upward
Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: $70.81 per barrel
Scenario 1: Buy oil by breaking the $71.13 level, targeting $71.60 and then $72.16.
Alternative scenario: Sell oil with a break and stability by closing a candle below the $70.45 levels, targeting $69.93 and then $69.35.
Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an upward trend.
EURUSD
General trend: Upward
Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 1.10692
First scenario: Buy the Euro-Dollar by breaking 1.10751, targeting 1.10935 and then 1.11160.
Alternative scenario: Sell the EUR/USD with a break and stability with a candle closing below 1.10524, targeting 1.10364 and then 1.10151.
Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an upward trend.
GBPUSD
Trend: Upward
Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 1.32859
Scenario 1: Buy the pound dollar with a break and stability above the level of 1.32940, targeting the price of 1.33180 and then 1.33467
Alternative scenario: Sell GBP/USD with a break and stability with a close below 1.32639, targeting 1.32399 and then 1.32177
Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an upward trend.
NAS100
Trend: Upward
Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 19904
Scenario 1: Buy Nasdaq with a break and hold to close above 20030 with a target price of 20133 then 20251
Alternative scenario: Sell Nasdaq with break and hold with close below 19873 with target price 19748 then 19641
Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an upward trend.
Economic Calendar
(Times are in GMT+3)
From China National Day Holiday
From the United States of America ADP Non-Farm Employment Change Index (September) 15:15
From the United States of America, the US crude oil inventory index 17:30
Fundamental Analysis
The dollar index held steady around 101.2 on Wednesday after rising for two straight sessions, supported by escalating conflict in the Middle East that spurred demand for safer assets.
Iran fired a series of missiles at Israel in response to Israel’s assassination of a Hezbollah leader and a key Iranian military officer in Lebanon.
Markets are now closely watching the potential Israeli response amid fears that the matter could escalate into a large-scale regional conflict.
Investors also watched the debate between Democratic vice presidential candidates Tim Walz and Republican J.D. Vance for potential political and economic implications.
Meanwhile, the latest jobs data indicated that the labor market remains resilient, while the manufacturing sector remained stagnant.
Investors are now looking ahead to more labor market data this week including ADP’s employment survey on Wednesday and the September jobs report on Friday.
Gold held near $2,660 an ounce on Wednesday, near record highs, supported by safe-haven demand amid growing fears of all-out war in the Middle East after Iran fired a missile targeting Israel.
Oil prices jumped more than $1 on Wednesday on growing concerns that tensions in the Middle East could escalate, potentially disrupting the region’s crude output, after Iran’s biggest-ever military strike against Israel.
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