Daily Market Analysis

 

Latest Economic and Fundamental Insights

 

• The dollar holds steady as a government shutdown is avoided and US lawmakers reached a last-minute deal to prevent a government shutdown.
• The dollar stays at its highest level in 10 months, while yields are far from their 16-year highs.
• Gold falls to its lowest level in seven months amid pressure from the strong dollar and rising Treasury bond yields. Gold recorded its biggest weekly drop since June 2021 last week.
• Silver reaches its lowest level in more than six months.
• Oil prices rise as risk appetite increases and focus shifts back to supply expectations. Brent crude trades at $92.31 and West Texas Intermediate at $89.79.
• Bitcoin bulls aim for a big target after the recent surge to $28,000.

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Smart technical reports

 

 

How they work

A likely scenario for the day is proposed, and the probability of this scenario being achieved, according to technical analysis, could be between 60% and 75%. If the first scenario fails, the probability of the second scenario being achieved will be between 60% and 75%.

The first scenario fails when the price reaches the alternative scenario condition level, the alternative scenario is then immediately activated, and the first scenario prediction gets cancelled.

These reports are not considered a substitute for the trader’s decision, but rather they are a tool to assist the follower in making their own decisions, as a reference based on classical technical analysis.

 

 

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GOLD

 

 

General trend: bearish

Time interval: 30 minutes

Current price: $1,842.49
First scenario: Buy gold on the break when stable by closing the candle above $1,846.79, targeting a price of $1,851.17 and then $1,855.67.

Alternative scenario: Sell gold on the break of $1,840.92, targeting a price of $1,835.65 and then $1,830.64.

Comment: Trading below resistances and averages suggests a downtrend.

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CRUDE OIL

 

 

 

General trend: bullish

Time interval: 30 minutes

Current price: $89.91 per barrel

First scenario: Buy oil on the break when steady by closing the candle above the levels of $90.27, targeting a price of $90.73 and then $91.26.

Alternative scenario: Sell oil on the break of $89.65, targeting a price of $89.21 and then $88.78.

Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an uptrend.

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EURUSD

 

 

 

General trend: bearish 

Time interval: 30 minutes

Current price: $1.0588
First scenario: Sell EURUSD on the break of $1.05722, targeting a price of $1.05562, and then $1.05389.

Alternative scenario: Buy EURUSD on the break when stable by closing the candle above $1.05952, targeting a price of $1.06139 and then $1.06349.

Comment: Trading below resistances and averages suggests a downtrend.

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GBPUSD

 

 

General trend: bearish

Time interval: 30 minutes

Current price: $1.21832
First scenario: Sell GBPUSD on the break when staying below $1.21726, targeting a price of $1.21529 and then $1.21305.

Alternative scenario: Buy GBPUSD on the break when stable by closing the candle above the levels of $1.22063, targeting a price of $1.22348 and then $1.22569.

Comment: Trading below resistances and averages suggests a downtrend.

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NAS100

 

 

 

General trend: bearish

Time interval: 30 minutes

Current price: $14,962
First scenario: Sell Nasdaq on the break when staying below $14,937, targeting a price of $14,883 and then $14,811.

Alternative scenario: Buy Nasdaq on the break when stable by closing the candle above the levels of $15,018, targeting a price of $15,079 and then $15,142.

Comment: Trading below resistances and averages suggests a downtrend.

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Economic Calendar

(Times are in GMT+3)

 

• Europe: Unemployment Rate at 12:00
• Canada: Manufacturing PMI at 16:30
• United States: Manufacturing PMI at 16:45
• United States, Fed Chair Powell Speaks at 18:00

 

Fundamental Analysis

 

• The dollar steadied above 106 on Monday after facing pressure in the recent sessions, as it found support from the news that US lawmakers managed to reach a last-minute deal to avoid a government shutdown.
• The index also remained close to its highest level in ten months and rose by 2.5% in September on the back of a higher-for-longer view on US interest rates.
• The US Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged at its meeting in September, but signaled another rate hike before the end of the year and fewer rate cuts than previously indicated for next year.
• Meanwhile, data released last week showed that the core personal consumption expenditures price index, which is preferred by the Federal Reserve, rose less than expected in August, while the US economy maintained a fairly strong growth pace of 2.1% in the second quarter.
• The dollar also stayed stable against most major currencies, but continued its strength against the yen and the Australian dollar.
• Gold extended its losses on Monday for the sixth session in a row to reach its lowest level in nearly seven months, with the dollar remaining strong, as traders digested the key US inflation report as they prepared for a large number of labor market data due later this week.
• Oil prices rose on Monday, recouping some of the losses they suffered at the end of last week, as investors focused on expectations of tight global supplies while the last-minute deal that avoided a US government shutdown restored risk appetite.