enDaily Analysis 02/09/2024
Latest Economic and Fundamental Insights
The dollar index held steady around 101.7 on Monday after rising for three straight sessions, as investors eased bets on aggressive interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in light of the latest inflation reading, while looking ahead to a key U.S. jobs report later this week.
Gold continues to decline to 2490 levels
-Economic data last week showed that core personal consumption expenditures prices in the United States rose 0.2% in July, in line with expectations, while the annual rate remained unchanged, contrary to expectations for an increase.
This dampened expectations of a 50bp rate cut by the Fed in September, and was consistent with the overall resilience of the economy to higher interest rates, following last week’s upward revision to GDP. However, markets still expect a 100bp rate cut in the remaining three Fed meetings this year.
The European Central Bank is also expected to implement interest rate cuts, given the sharp slowdown in inflation according to preliminary figures for August.
-Gold steady in early Asian trade. Prices fall as US dollar rises after US inflation data was in line with market expectations,
-The gold market is likely to rely on signals from the US Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, and while cool macroeconomic data makes it likely that the easing cycle will start soon, mixed comments from Fed officials could inject market volatility in the near term.
Asian stock markets were weak on Monday as investors prepared for a data-heavy week culminating in a U.S. jobs report that could decide whether an expected interest rate cut this month will be gradual or large.
Oil continues losses on weak Chinese data and potential OPEC+ supply increases, with Brent crude trading at $76.00 and WTI at $72.00
Six sources from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies, a group known as OPEC+, told Reuters that the group is close to moving forward with a planned increase in oil production from October.
Eight OPEC+ members are set to increase their output by 180,000 barrels per day in October, as part of a plan to start easing the latest layer of 2.2 million barrels per day of production cuts while maintaining further reductions until the end of 2025.
“There are concerns that OPEC will go ahead with increasing production from October,” said Tony Sycamore, market analyst at IG.
“However, I believe this outcome is price dependent, as it occurs if WTI is closer to $80 than $70.”
Both Brent and WTI crude have posted two straight months of losses as demand concerns in the United States and China outweighed recent disruptions to Libyan oil supplies amid a dispute between government factions there and tensions in the key Middle East producing region over the conflict between Israel and Gaza.
Bitcoin price losses extended below the $58,500 support area. Bitcoin is struggling and may continue moving towards the $55,000 support area.
-Bitcoin price remained stable above the support area at $58,500. Bitcoin is facing difficulties and may start a steady rise only if it breaks the $61,500 level.
Smart technical reports
How they work
A likely scenario is proposed for today, and the probability of this scenario being achieved, according to technical analysis, may be between 60% and 75%.
If the first scenario fails, the probability of the second scenario being achieved will be between 60% and 75% certain.
The first scenario fails when the price reaches the level of the alternative scenario condition, and the alternative scenario is immediately activated and the prediction from the first scenario is cancelled.
These reports are not considered a substitute for the trader’s decision, but rather they are a tool to assist the follower in making his own decisions, as a reference based on the origins of classical technical analysis.
GOLD
General trend: Upward
Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 2498.79
Scenario 1: Buy gold with a break and stability above 2503.93, targeting 2510.36 and 2517.49
Alternative scenario: Sell gold with a break and stability below 2492.55, targeting 2486.11 and then 2478.27
Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an upward trend.
CRUDE OIL
Trend: Down
Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: $72.65 per barrel
Scenario 1: Sell oil by breaking the $72.27 level, targeting $71.75 and then $71.17.
Alternative scenario: Buy oil with a break and hold with a candle closing above $72.95, targeting $73.42 and then $73.98
Comment: Trading below the resistances and averages suggests a decline.
EURUSD
General trend: Upward
Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 1.10687
Scenario 1: Buy EUR/USD by breaking 1.10757, targeting 1.10941 and then 1.11166.
Alternative scenario: Sell the EUR/USD with a break and stability with a candle closing below 1.10529, targeting 1.10370 and then 1.10157
Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an upward trend.
GBPUSD
Trend: Upward
Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 1.31436
Scenario 1: Buy the pound dollar with a break and stability above the level of 1.31496, targeting the price of 1.31736 and then 1.32023.
Alternative scenario: Selling the pound dollar with a break and stability with a close below 1.31195, targeting 1.30955 and then 1.30733
Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an upward trend.
NAS100
Trend: Upward
Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 19573
Scenario 1: Buy Nasdaq with a break and hold with a close above 19653, targeting 19757 then 19875
Alternative scenario: Sell Nasdaq with break and hold with close below 19499 with target price 19372 then 19265
Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an upward trend.
Economic Calendar
(Times are in GMT+3)
From USA and Canada Labor Day Holiday
Fundamental Analysis
The dollar index held steady around 101.7 on Monday after rising for three straight sessions, as investors eased bets on aggressive interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in light of the latest inflation reading, while looking ahead to a key U.S. jobs report later this week.
Data released on Friday showed that U.S. core personal consumption expenditures prices grew at a steady rate in July, dampening hopes that the central bank could cut interest rates by 50 basis points in September.
The focus now shifts to the upcoming August jobs report, as the Fed shifts its focus from inflation to the labor market.
A group of Federal Reserve policymakers recently warned of signs of labor market weakness, while signaling confidence that inflation will return to target.
The dollar held onto gains against major currencies, trading at a two-week high against the euro.
Gold fell below $2,500 an ounce on Monday, extending its retreat from record highs hit last week as a strong dollar and higher bond yields weighed.
Oil prices extended losses on Monday amid expectations of higher OPEC+ output from October and signs of slowing demand in China and the United States, the world’s biggest oil consumers, raising concerns about future consumption growth.
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