Daily Market Analysis

 

 

Latest Economic and Fundamental Insights

 

The dollar index held steady around 105.9 on Tuesday after falling to a low of 105.43 in the previous session, finding support from strong Treasury yields that analysts attributed to increased government borrowing under a possible second term for Donald Trump.

Gold falls as investors await Powell’s speech

US non-farm payrolls data is due on Friday and ADP employment data is due on Wednesday.

-U.S. manufacturing sector shrank in June

The dollar was supported by higher US yields, making gold less attractive.

Gold prices rose to their highest since late May on Monday, with analysts citing expectations that Donald Trump will win the U.S. presidency, raise tariffs and increase government borrowing.

-For gold prices to break out of the current range, the market needs to see more weak data points that increase the likelihood of a Fed rate cut in September, said Kelvin Wong, senior market analyst for Asia-Pacific at OANDA. (FEDWATCH)

Low interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding zero-yielding gold.

Traders will be looking for clues on whether to cut interest rates when Powell speaks later in the day. Other data to watch include private-sector employment, the Institute for Supply Management’s services PMI, minutes from the Federal Reserve’s latest policy meeting, due on Wednesday, and the nonfarm payrolls report, due on Friday.

The U.S. manufacturing sector contracted in June, while a decline in a measure of the prices paid by factories for inputs suggested inflation may continue to ease.

Separately, analysts at Citigroup said they expect investment demand for gold to absorb almost all mine supply over the next 12 to 18 months, but added that the main risk to their bullish base case is that retail demand in China will be weaker than expected, due to import quotas.

“Weak demand from central banks or a delay in the Fed’s rate normalization also pose risks to the strong investment demand theory,” they said in a note.

Oil trades near two-month high amid summer demand outlook, possible rate cut, Brent at $86.00, WTI at $82.00

Oil price action “seems to be driven more by fear and sentiment than fundamentals,” said Vandana Hari, founder of oil market analyst Vanda Insights, citing summer fuel demand forecasts, the greater chance of conflict between Israel and Iran, and Hurricane Beryl as supporting factors.

Gasoline demand in the United States, the world’s largest oil consumer, is expected to rise as the summer travel season picks up with the Independence Day holiday this week. The American Automobile Association forecasts holiday travel to be 5.2% higher than in 2023, with car travel alone up 4.8% from a year earlier.

-Bitcoin price recovered and tested the $63,650 resistance area. Bitcoin is now consolidating its gains and may try to surpass $63,650 again.

-Bitcoin price rose almost 5% and there was a move above $62,500. BTC is now testing the $63,500 resistance area at a positive angle.

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Smart technical reports

 

 

How they work

A likely scenario is proposed for today, and the probability of this scenario being achieved, according to technical analysis, may be between 60% and 75%.

If the first scenario fails, the probability of the second scenario being achieved will be between 60% and 75% certain.

The first scenario fails when the price reaches the level of the alternative scenario condition, and the alternative scenario is immediately activated and the prediction from the first scenario is cancelled.

These reports are not considered a substitute for the trader’s decision, but rather they are a tool to assist the follower in making his own decisions, as a reference based on the origins of classical technical analysis.

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GOLD

 

General trend: Down

Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 2328.11

Scenario 1: Sell gold with a break and stability below 2324.05, targeting 2317.60 and 2311.38

Alternative scenario: Buy gold with a break and stability above 2335.43, targeting 2341.86 and then 2348.99

Comment: Trading below the resistances and averages suggests a decline.

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CRUDE OIL

 

Trend: Upward

Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: $83.00 per barrel

Scenario 1: Buy oil with a break and stability by closing a candle above the $83.31 levels, targeting $83.78 and then $84.34.

Alternative scenario: Sell oil by breaking $82.63 with a target price of $82.11 then $81.52

Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an upward trend.

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EURUSD

 

General trend: bullish

Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 1.07319

Scenario 1: Buy EUR/USD by breaking 1.07433, targeting 1.07618 and then 1.07843.

Alternative scenario: Sell the EUR/USD with a break and stability by closing a candle below 1.07206, targeting 1.07046 and then 1.06833.

Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an upward trend.

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GBPUSD

 

Trend: bullish

Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 1.26381 Scenario 1: Buy the pound dollar with a break and stability above the level of 1.26513, targeting the price of 1.26799 and then 1.27020

Alternative scenario: Selling the pound dollar with a break and stability with a close below 1.26177, targeting 1.25979 and then 1.25755

Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an upward trend.

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NAS100

 

Trend: bullish

Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 20001

Scenario 1: Buy Nasdaq with a break and hold to close above 20045 with a target price of 20115 then 20195

Alternative scenario: Sell Nasdaq with break and hold with close below 19943 price 19886 then 19835

Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an upward trend.

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Economic Calendar

 

(Times are in GMT+3)

-From Europe Consumer Price Index (YoY) (June) 12:00
-From USA Fed Chairman Powell Speech 16:30
-From USA Job Openings (JOLTs) (May) 17:00

 

Fundamental Analysis

 

 

The dollar index held steady around 105.9 on Tuesday after falling to a low of 105.43 in the previous session, finding support from strong Treasury yields that analysts attributed to increased government borrowing under a possible second term for Donald Trump.

The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note held steady at around 4.45%, trading near its highest level in a month.

The dollar came under pressure on Monday as U.S. manufacturing activity fell more sharply than expected, supporting the case for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut.

Traders are now looking ahead to comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell later Tuesday and the central bank’s latest policy meeting minutes on Wednesday, as well as Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report to further guide interest rate expectations.

The dollar recovered some of its losses against the euro, pound and Australian dollar, while it continued to rise against the New Zealand dollar, yuan and yen.

The Japanese currency fell to its lowest level in 38 years as the carry trade remained attractive.

Gold prices fell on Tuesday as the US dollar firmed, while investors awaited comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell as well as the country’s jobs data for further clues on interest rate expectations.

Oil prices were little changed on Tuesday, holding near two-month highs hit in the previous session, on expectations of higher fuel demand during the summer travel season and a potential U.S. interest rate cut that could boost economic growth.