Daily Market Analysis

 

Latest Economic and Fundamental Insights

 

• The dollar rose to near 11-month highs on Wednesday, as investors prepared for the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decision.
• Gold fell amid caution ahead of the Fed’s policy decision. The Fed is expected to raise interest rates by 0.5 percentage points at the end of its meeting later today.
• China’s factory activity contracted in October – Caixin manufacturing PMI.
• Oil prices rose ahead of the Fed meeting, as the conflict in the Middle East continued. Brent crude traded at $85.22, while West Texas Intermediate traded at $80.85.
• Bitcoin prices are still struggling to break through the key resistance level of $35,000. BTC could pull back and visit the support level of $34,000 if it continues to trade near $35,000.

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Smart technical reports

 

 

How they work

A likely scenario for the day is proposed, and the probability of this scenario being achieved, according to technical analysis, could be between 60% and 75%. If the first scenario fails, the probability of the second scenario being achieved will be between 60% and 75%.

The first scenario fails when the price reaches the alternative scenario condition level, the alternative scenario is then immediately activated, and the first scenario prediction gets cancelled.

These reports are not considered a substitute for the trader’s decision, but rather they are a tool to assist the follower in making their own decisions, as a reference based on classical technical analysis.

 

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GOLD

 

General trend: bearish

Time interval: 30 minutes

Current price: $1,978.14

First scenario: Buy gold on the break when steady by closing the candle above the levels of $1,982.17, targeting a price of $1,987.23 and then $1,994.17.
Alternative scenario: Sell gold on the break of $1,973.94, targeting a price of $1,967.29 and then $1,960.25.

Comment: Trading below resistances and averages suggests a downtrend. 

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CRUDE OIL

 

 

General trend: bearish

Time interval: 30 minutes

Current price: $80.79 per barrel

First scenario: Buy oil on the break when steady by closing the candle above the levels of $81.23, targeting a price of $81.78 and then $82.28.
Alternative scenario: Sell oil on the break of $80.61, targeting a price of $80.03 and then $79.51.

Comment: Trading below resistances and averages suggests a downtrend.

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EURUSD

 

General trend: bullish

Time interval: 30 minutes

Current price: $1.05671

First scenario: Sell EURUSD on the break of $1.05581, targeting a price of $1.05421 and then $1.05230.
Alternative scenario: Buy EURUSD on the break when steady by closing the candle above the levels of $1.05811, targeting a price of $1.05998 and then $1.06208.

Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an uptrend.

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GBPUSD

 

General trend: bearish

Time interval: 30 minutes

Current price: $1.21327

First scenario: Sell GBPUSD on the break of $1.21215, targeting a price of $1.21017 and then $1.20793.
Alternative scenario: Buy GBPUSD on the break when steady by closing the candle above the levels of $1.21551, targeting a price of $1.21836 and then $1.22058.

Comment: Trading below resistances and averages suggests a downtrend.

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NAS100

 

General trend: bearish

Time interval: 30 minutes

Current price: $14,464

First scenario: Sell Nasdaq on the break of $14,425, targeting a price of $14,371 and then $14,299.
Alternative scenario: Buy Nasdaq on the break when steady by closing the candle above the levels of $14,506, targeting a price of $14,567 and then $14,630.

Comment: Trading below resistances and averages suggests a downtrend.

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Economic Calendar

(Times are in GMT+3)

 

• Switzerland: Manufacturing PMI at 11:30
• US: ADP Non-Farm Employment Change at 15:15
• US: ISM Manufacturing PMI at 16:45
• US: Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) released by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) at 17:00
• US: JOLTS Job Openings at 17:00
• US: Crude Oil Inventories at 17:30
• US: Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision at 21:00

 

Fundamental Analysis

 

• The dollar index held on to its recent gains to trade around 106.7 on Wednesday, nearing its highest level in 11 months as investors prepared for the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decision.
• As widely expected, the central bank is anticipated to keep interest rates unchanged on Wednesday, but keep borrowing costs elevated for some time as the US economy remains resilient.
• The US has also outperformed other major economies in recent months, which has supported the dollar and Treasury yields.New data showed that US employment costs rose more than expected in the third quarter due to rising wages, pointing to a tight labor market.
• The dollar rose against most major currencies, while it remained near its highest level in a year against the yen, as the Bank of Japan’s move to ease its grip on long-term interest rates was seen as insufficient.
• Gold started November on a weaker note, as investors awaited the US Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decision due later today, after concerns about the conflict in the Middle East boosted safe-haven asset prices above $2,000 an ounce last month.
• Oil prices rose in early Asian trading on Wednesday ahead of key global central bank meetings this week, including the US Federal Reserve, as the market closely monitors the latest developments in the conflict between Israel and Hamas.