enDaily Analysis 01/10/2024
Latest Economic and Fundamental Insights
The dollar index held steady around 100.7 on Tuesday after gaining some ground in the previous session after Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell signaled the central bank would opt for smaller interest rate cuts at upcoming meetings.
Gold rises on safe-haven demand
Reports indicated that Lebanese forces withdrew from the border with Israel late on Monday as an Israeli ground invasion appeared imminent, following Israel’s assassination of the Hezbollah leader, which led to an escalation of regional tensions.
Meanwhile, recent comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell that the recent aggressive rate cut should not be interpreted as a sign of equally aggressive future action capped gains.
He also noted that potential additional cuts would likely be smaller increments of about a quarter of a percentage point.
The odds of another 50 basis point rate cut in November are now 37%, compared to more than 50% the previous week.
Investors are now looking ahead to more economic data, including the jobs report, the JOLTS index, and the ISM manufacturing and services PMIs.
Gold rises on safe-haven demand, Middle East tensions
Gold rose in early Asian trading and remained near record highs hit last week.
The rise in the price of the precious metal was supported by demand for safe havens.
“Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East continue to drive demand for safe-haven assets such as gold, as investors seek protection from risk, providing additional support to the precious metal’s prices.”
Oil was little changed as demand concerns overcame Middle East worries, with Brent crude trading at $71.00 and WTI at $68.00.
Oil steady in early trade as weak China PMI data raises demand doubts, OPEC+ extra supply expected in December, investors eye escalating Israel-Lebanon tensions
“There has been a lot of caution on oil prices, with market participants looking forward to supply additions from OPEC+ by the end of this year, coupled with weak demand expectations from China reflected in the country’s latest PMI numbers,” said Yip Junrong, market strategist at IG.
“However, sentiment has become less sensitive to weaker data, finding room to stabilize on hopes that the latest stimulus package will help move the economy forward,” Yip said.
China’s manufacturing activity contracted sharply in September as new orders at home and abroad slowed, a private sector survey showed on Monday, pushing factory owners’ confidence to near record lows.
-Bitcoin price started to decline again below the $65,000 level. Bitcoin is now testing the support area at $62,850 and may start to rise again.
Smart technical reports
How they work
A likely scenario is proposed for today, and the probability of this scenario being achieved, according to technical analysis, may be between 60% and 75%.
If the first scenario fails, the probability of the second scenario being achieved will be between 60% and 75% certain.
The first scenario fails when the price reaches the level of the alternative scenario condition, and the alternative scenario is immediately activated and the prediction from the first scenario is cancelled.
These reports are not considered a substitute for the trader’s decision, but rather they are a tool to assist the follower in making his own decisions, as a reference based on the origins of classical technical analysis.
GOLD
General trend: Upward
Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 2643.04
Scenario 1: Buy gold with a break and stability above 2646.46, targeting 2652.89 and 2660.02
Alternative scenario: Sell gold with a break and stability below 2636.08, targeting 2628.63 and then 2620.80
Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an upward trend.
CRUDE OIL
Trend: Upward
Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: $68.03 per barrel
Scenario 1: Buy oil by breaking the $68.53 level, targeting $69.00 and then $69.56.
Alternative scenario: Sell oil with a break and stability by closing a candle below the $67.90 levels, targeting $67.33 and then $66.74.
Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an upward trend.
EURUSD
General trend: Upward
Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 1.11330
Scenario 1: Buy EUR/USD by breaking 1.11491, targeting 1.11676 and then 1.11900.
Alternative scenario: Sell the EUR/USD with a break and stability with a candle closing below 1.11264, targeting 1.11104 and then 1.10891.
Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an upward trend.
GBPUSD
Trend: Upward
Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 1.33669
Scenario 1: Buy the pound dollar with a break and stability above the level of 1.33879, targeting the price of 1.34120 and then 1.34407
Alternative scenario: Sell GBP/USD with a break and stability with a close below 1.33579, targeting 1.33339 and then 1.33117
Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an upward trend.
NAS100
Trend: Upward
Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 20251
Scenario 1: Buy Nasdaq with a break and hold with a close above 20358, targeting 20461 then 20579
Alternative scenario: Sell Nasdaq with break and hold with close below 20201 with target price 20076 then 19969
Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an upward trend.
Economic Calendar
(Times are in GMT+3)
-From China National Day Holiday
-From Europe Consumer Price Index (YoY) (September) 12:00
From USA Manufacturing PMI (September) 16:45
From the United States of America, the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (September) 17:00
From USA Job Opportunities (JOLTS) (August) 17:00
Fundamental Analysis
The dollar index held steady around 100.7 on Tuesday after gaining some ground in the previous session after Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell signaled the central bank would opt for smaller interest rate cuts at upcoming meetings.
Powell said in a speech in Nashville, Tennessee, that the recent 50 basis point rate cut was not a sign of similar moves in the future, and made clear that the central bank was “not on any predetermined path.” Markets have cut their expectations for a half-percentage point rate cut in November to about 36% from 53% the day before, with the odds of a more modest 25 basis point cut at about 64%.
Investors are now looking ahead to key economic data this week including the September jobs report, the JOLTS and the ISM manufacturing and services PMIs.
The dollar rose the most against the yen but remained under pressure against the Australian dollar.
Gold rose toward $2,640 an ounce on Tuesday after falling for two straight sessions, as rising geopolitical risks in the Middle East continued to boost demand for safe-haven assets.
Brent crude futures settled around $71.8 a barrel on Tuesday, as higher risk premiums from escalating tensions in the Middle East were offset by expectations of increased supply.
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