Daily Market Analysis

 

 

Latest Economic and Fundamental Insights

 

The dollar index fell towards 105.6 on Monday, falling for a third straight session, mainly influenced by the strength of the euro after the first round of early elections in France over the weekend.

-Gold holds firm as slowing inflation boosts Fed rate cut bets

-Fed Chairman Powell’s speech on Tuesday and the Fed’s June policy meeting minutes on Wednesday
Data on Friday showed that the personal consumption expenditures index rose 2.6% after rising 2.7% in April. May inflation readings were in line with economists’ expectations.

Yip Jun Rong, market strategist at IG, said: “The recent US inflation data remains fresh in the minds of investors, as the data came in line with consensus and did not generally do much to influence current market price expectations for the start of the Fed’s monetary policy easing process in… September”.

-But “any failure to defend the $2,280 level in the future may pave the way for gold prices to head towards the $2,200 level in the future.”

Traders are pricing in a 64% chance of a first rate cut in September, according to the CME FedWatch tool. Lower interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold.

Market focus shifts to comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell on Tuesday, followed by minutes from the Fed’s latest policy meeting on Wednesday and US labor market data later in the week.

“Despite the slowdown in central bank purchases in recent months, we believe that emerging market central banks will continue to diversify their reserves into gold,” ANZ said in a quarterly note.

Uncertainty over the outlook for U.S. interest rates kept Asian stocks steady on Monday, while the euro rose after the far-right won the first round of voting in France’s surprise snap election, albeit by a smaller share than some polls had forecast.

-Oil prices rise due to expectations of demand in the summer, with Brent crude trading at levels of $85.00, as well as West Texas crude at levels of $81.00.

Both crudes have risen about 6% in June, with Brent settling above $85 a barrel in the past two weeks, after the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, a group known as OPEC+, extended most of their deep oil production cuts well into 2025.

This has prompted analysts to predict a supply deficit in the third quarter as demand for transportation and air conditioning increases during the summer, depleting fuel stocks.

-The Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported on Friday that oil production and demand for key products rose to the highest level in four months in April, supporting prices.

-Bitcoin price rose almost 5% and there was a move above $62,500. BTC is now testing the $63,500 resistance area at a positive angle.

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Smart technical reports

 

 

How they work

A likely scenario is proposed for today, and the probability of this scenario being achieved, according to technical analysis, may be between 60% and 75%.

If the first scenario fails, the probability of the second scenario being achieved will be between 60% and 75% certain.

The first scenario fails when the price reaches the level of the alternative scenario condition, and the alternative scenario is immediately activated and the prediction from the first scenario is cancelled.

These reports are not considered a substitute for the trader’s decision, but rather they are a tool to assist the follower in making his own decisions, as a reference based on the origins of classical technical analysis.

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GOLD

 

General trend: Down

Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 2327.71

The first scenario: selling gold at a break and holding below 2318.04, with a target price of 2311.59 and 2305.36.

Alternative scenario: Buy gold at a break and hold above 2329.42, with a target price of 2335.85 and then 2342.98.

Comment: Trading below resistances and averages suggests a decline

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CRUDE OIL

 

Trend: Upward

Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: $81.64 per barrel

Scenario 1: Buy oil with a break and stability by closing a candle above the $81.95 levels, targeting $82.42 and then $82.98.

Alternative scenario: Sell oil by breaking the $81.27 level, targeting $80.75, then 80.17.

Comment: Trading above supports and averages suggests an upward trend

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EURUSD

 

General trend: bullish

Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 1.07706

Scenario 1: Buy EUR/USD by breaking 1.07791, targeting 1.07975 and then 1.08200.

Alternative scenario: Sell the EUR/USD with a break and stability with a candle closing below 1.07564, targeting 1.07404 and then 1.07191.

Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an upward trend

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GBPUSD

 

Trend: bullish

Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 1.26845

Scenario 1: Buy the pound dollar with a break and stability above the level of 1.26983, targeting the price of 1.27269 and then 1.27490.

Alternative scenario: Selling the pound dollar with a break and stability with a close below 1.26647, targeting 1.26449 and then 1.26225

Comment: Trading above supports and averages suggests an upward trend

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NAS100

 

Trend: bullish

Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 20014

Scenario 1: Buy Nasdaq with a break and hold to close above 20045 with a target price of 20115 then 20195

Alternative scenario: sell Nasdaq at a break and hold firm by closing below 19943, price of 19886, then 19835.

Comment: Trading above supports and averages suggests an upward trend

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Economic Calendar

 

(Times are in GMT+3)

-From Germany German CPI (MoM) (June) 15:00
-From USA Manufacturing PMI (June) 16:45
-From USA ISM Manufacturing PMI (June) 17:00

 

Fundamental Analysis

 

 

The dollar index fell towards 105.6 on Monday, falling for the third straight session, mainly influenced by the strength of the euro after the first round of early elections in France over the weekend.

Marine Le Pen’s National Rally party won the first round of parliamentary elections as widely expected, although the far-right party took a smaller lead than expected.

The dollar came under pressure on Friday after U.S. personal consumption expenditures inflation slowed in May, boosting bets the Federal Reserve will push ahead with interest rate cuts this year.

Markets now expect a 63% chance of the Fed cutting interest rates in September, while the odds of a move in November and December have also increased.

Investors now look to U.S. manufacturing activity data later on Monday for more insight into the economy and potential implications for monetary policy.

The dollar recorded the largest decline against the euro, the British pound, and the Australian currencies.
Gold prices stabilized on Monday after data showed a decline in inflation in the United States, which raised hopes that the Federal Reserve (the US central bank) would begin lowering interest rates this year.

Oil prices rose on Monday, supported by expectations of a supply deficit due to peak summer fuel consumption and OPEC+ cuts in the third quarter, although global economic headwinds and rising non-OPEC+ output capped gains.