enDaily Analysis 01/04/2024
Latest Economic and Fundamental Insights
The dollar index steadied around 104.5 in post-holiday trade on Monday, as investors digested the latest Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index report for clues on the path of Federal Reserve monetary policy.
Gold hits record high as weak US data bolsters bets for June rate cut
• Gold hit an all-time high of $2,265.51 an ounce
• US inflation “in line with what we’d like to see” – Powell
• Traders price in 69% chance of Fed rate cut in June
• John Ryding says core reading now at lowest level in nearly two years likely to provide some validation for Fed to start cutting rates sooner rather than later
Data on Friday showed that prices in the United States moderated in February, with the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index rising 0.3%.
• Gold had its biggest monthly rise in over three years in March after a strong rally fueled by bets on lower interest rates, strong safe-haven demand and central bank buying.
Chinese stocks jump, Japan falls as yen steadies near intervention zone
• Stocks mixed, focus on yen as inflation data looms
• Chinese stocks led gains across most of Asia on Monday amid a broadly upbeat global economic backdrop, but Japanese shares fell as the yen steadied near levels that prompted traders to be wary of currency intervention.
• Several markets are closed on Monday for Easter holidays, including Australia and Hong Kong in Asia, and the UK and Germany.
The Chinese yuan fell on Monday, pressured by a dollar that held near a six-week high, despite fresh data suggesting that the economic recovery is gaining momentum and continued efforts by the central bank to stabilize the currency.
Oil rises as investors bet on supply tightness, China economy; Brent crude trades at $87.00, WTI at $83.00
• Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said on Friday that Russian oil companies will focus on cutting production rather than exports in the second quarter in order to distribute production cuts evenly with other OPEC+ member states.
• Drone strikes from Ukraine have destroyed several Russian refineries, which is expected to reduce Russian fuel exports.
• The consultancy added that nearly 1 million barrels per day of Russian crude processing capacity is offline due to the attacks, impacting its exports of high-sulfur fuel oil that are processed in Chinese and Indian refineries.
Bitcoin price consolidates above $70,000 resistance zone. BTC could remain range-bound for some time before bulls attempt a move towards $75,000.
Smart technical reports
How they work
A likely scenario is proposed for today, and the probability of this scenario being achieved, according to technical analysis, may be between 60% and 75%.
If the first scenario fails, the probability of the second scenario being achieved will be between 60% and 75% certain.
The first scenario fails when the price reaches the level of the alternative scenario condition, and the alternative scenario is immediately activated and the prediction from the first scenario is cancelled.
These reports are not considered a substitute for the trader’s decision, but rather they are a tool to assist the follower in making his own decisions, as a reference based on the origins of classical technical analysis.
GOLD
General trend: bullish
Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 2260.62
The first scenario: Buy gold at a break and hold above 2266.60, with a target price of 2273.02 and 2280.41. Alternative scenario: Sell gold at a break and hold below 2255.21, with a price target of 2248.77 and then 2241.41.
Comment: Trading above supports and averages suggests an upward trend
CRUDE OIL
Trend: bullish
Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: $83.08 per barrel
The first scenario: Buying oil at a break and holding steady by closing the candle at the highest level at $83.32, targeting a price of $83.79, then 84.36. Alternative scenario: Selling oil at a break of $82.65, targeting a price of $81.12, then 81.54.
Comment: Trading above supports and averages suggests an upward trend
EURUSD
General trend: – Bearish
Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 1.07829
First scenario: Sell the euro/dollar at a break of 1.07753, targeting a price of 1.07593, then 1.07380. Alternative scenario: Buy the euro/dollar at a break of 1.07980, targeting a price of 1.08165, then 1.08389.
Comment: Trading below resistances and averages suggests a decline
GBPUSD
Trend: down
Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 1.26233
The first scenario: selling the pound dollar at a fraction and holding below the level of 1.26124, targeting a price of 1.25926 then 1.25702. Alternative scenario: buying the pound dollar at a breaking point and holding steady at a close above 1.26460, targeting a price of 1.26746 then 1.26967.
Comment: Trading below resistances and averages suggests a decline 1.26746
NAS100
Trend: bullish
Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 18580
The first scenario: Buying the Nasdaq at a break and holding steady with a close above 18611, targeting the price of 18650 then 18696. The alternative scenario: selling the Nasdaq at a break and holding steady with a close below 18552, targeting the price of 18510 then 18466.
Comment: Trading above supports and averages suggests an upward trend
Economic Calendar
(Times are in GMT+3)
- Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (March) 16:45
- Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (ISM) (March) 17:00
Fundamental Analysis
The dollar index steadied around 104.5 in post-holiday trade on Monday, as investors digested the latest Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index report for clues on the path of Federal Reserve monetary policy.
Data released on Friday showed the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge rose 0.3% on a monthly basis in February, slowing from an upwardly revised 0.4% gain in January that was also the consensus expectation. The report also showed consumer spending increased by the most in over a year last month, highlighting the economy’s resilience.
Meanwhile, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell on Friday reiterated that the central bank is in no hurry to cut interest rates, and that the latest PCE inflation data was in line with what the Fed wants to see.
Markets now see a roughly 70% chance that the Fed will start cutting rates in June, with a total of 75 basis points of cuts priced in for this year.
Investors are now looking ahead to this week’s monthly jobs report, among other economic data.
Gold prices hit a record high on Monday, as weak US inflation data boosted bets that the Federal Reserve will make its first rate cut this year in June.
Oil prices rose on Monday, adding to recent gains on expectations of tighter supplies from OPEC+ cuts, attacks on Russian refineries, and upbeat Chinese manufacturing data supporting demand expectations.
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