Daily Market Analysis

 

Latest Economic and Fundamental Insights

 

• The dollar index slipped towards 104 on Friday, giving up gains from the previous session and facing renewed pressure from dovish comments by a central bank official.
• Gold hovers near one-month high as U.S. inflation slows.
• Investors focus on euro zone PMI and prices.
• Chinese yuan falls as manufacturing weakness persists, eyes on NPC session.
• The dollar steadies on Friday after data showed U.S. inflation remains firm but is gradually easing.
• Oil rises, markets await OPEC+ decision despite mixed demand drivers, with Brent crude trading at $82.00 and WTI crude at $78.00.
• Japanese and Australian stocks hit record highs amid Wall Street rally.
• Bitcoin price corrects its gains from the $64,000 resistance level. BTC may find strong support near the $59,250 level or the 100-hour simple moving average.

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Smart technical reports

 

 

How they work

A likely scenario is proposed for today, and the probability of this scenario being achieved, according to technical analysis, may be between 60% and 75%.

If the first scenario fails, the probability of the second scenario being achieved will be between 60% and 75% certain.

The first scenario fails when the price reaches the level of the alternative scenario condition, and the alternative scenario is immediately activated and the prediction from the first scenario is cancelled.

These reports are not considered a substitute for the trader’s decision, but rather they are a tool to assist the follower in making his own decisions, as a reference based on the origins of classical technical analysis.

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GOLD

 

General trend: bullish

Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 2047.59

The first scenario: Buy gold at a fraction and hold above 2049.91, with a target price of 2054.96 and 2061.91. Alternative scenario: Sell gold at a break and hold below 2041.67, with a price target of 2035.23 and then 2027.87.

Comment: Trading above supports and averages suggests an upward trend

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CRUDE OIL

 

Trend: bullish

Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: $78.01 per barrel

The first scenario: Buying oil at a break and holding steady by closing the candle at the highest level at $78.39, targeting a price of $78.86, then 79.43. Alternative scenario: Selling oil at a break of $77.71, targeting a price of $77.19, then 76.61.

Comment: Trading above supports and averages suggests an upward trend

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EURUSD

 

General trend: – Bullish

Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 1.08165 scenario

The first: Buy the Euro/Dollar at a break of 1.08254, targeting a price of 1.08439, then 1.08663. Alternative scenario: Sell the Euro/Dollar at a break of 1.08027, targeting a price of 1.07867, then 1.07654.

Comment: Trading above supports and averages suggests an upward trend

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GBPUSD

 

Trend: down

Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 1.26324

The first scenario: Selling the pound dollar at a fraction and holding below the level of 1.26124, targeting the price of 1.25927, then 1.25703. Alternative scenario: Buying the pound dollar at a break, and holding steady by closing above 1.26460, targeting the price of 1.26746, then 1.26967.

Comment: Trading below resistances and averages leads to a decline

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NAS100

 

 Trend: Bullish

Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 18136

The first scenario: Buying Nasdaq at a break and holding steady with a close above 18157, targeting a price of 18196 then 18243. Alternative scenario: Selling Nasdaq at a break and holding steady with a close below 18098, targeting a price of 18056 then 18012.

Comment: Trading above supports and averages suggests an upward trend

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Economic Calendar

 

(Times are in GMT+3)

From Europe:
• Consumer Price Index (Annual) (February): 13:00

From the United States:
• Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (February): 17:45
• Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (February): 18:00

 

Fundamental Analysis

 

 

• The dollar index slipped towards 104 on Friday, giving up gains from the previous session and facing renewed pressure from dovish comments by a central bank official.
• New York Federal Reserve President John Williams said he expects the central bank to cut interest rates later this year amid easing inflation and a healthy economy.
• He added that he does not see the economy creating the conditions that would require the Fed to raise rates again.
• Meanwhile, data on Thursday showed that core personal consumption expenditures prices, a measure of inflation closely watched by the Fed, rose 0.4% on a monthly basis in January, accelerating from a 0.1% increase in December as widely expected.
• Markets currently expect a two-thirds chance of a rate cut in June, with no moves seen in March and May.
• The dollar lost some ground against most major currencies, but remained strong against the Japanese yen.
• Gold prices hovered near a one-month high on Friday after data signaled easing U.S. price pressures, while traders awaited comments from several Fed officials.
• Oil prices rose on Friday and are set to end the week slightly higher as markets await an OPEC+ decision on supply agreements for the second quarter amid mixed demand signals from key consumers the United States and China.